A new year, a new election. This time it’s the UK general election on May 7, just four months away. One thing is for certain, it’s going to be the most unpredictable election and the outcome will challenge the first past the post system.
The latest polling shows the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck in the polls, raising the prospect of a hung parliament. The SNP are still making strides and are on course to make historic gains if they can maintain their current 20 point lead over Labour in Scotland.
The first SNP Westminster campaign advert this week showed the benches of Westminster turning tartan with a headline: “The more seats we have here, the more powers we’ll have in Scotland.”
It’s a simple but effective message: vote SNP to deliver home rule for Scotland, appealing to all voters, Yes and No.
This message of post-indy ref unification is going to be a common thread, particularly as Jim Murphy attempts the same thing trying to win back Yes voters
He started Scottish Labour’s campaign by trying to recoup lost ground, targeting over 190,000 people who voted Labour at the last general election in Scotland but voted Yes in September. He wants their votes to “get rid of the Tories or to vote SNP and keep the status quo.”
Labour’s standard rallying call has been “vote Labour to keep the Tories out”. The theory being any seat the SNP take from Labour makes it less likely Labour will form the largest party. It’s a campaign message which has served them well in the past in terms of their own results, but not in terms of keeping the Tories out. After all, Scotland voted Labour at the last general election and we still ended up with the Tories. This also happened for four elections in a row from the late 1970s, through the 1980s and right on until the end of the 1990s. This time the difference is the SNP could hold the balance of power and seriously influence decision making.
However, Labour’s strategy is not only hampered by electoral fact, but by the very different situation we find ourselves in this time round. There are three reasons for this.
First, this time, as almost every poll confirms, the SNP is in with a realistic chance of holding the balance of power and being able to seriously influence decision making at Westminster. An SNP group that includes new Labour and Lib Dem seats will be able to offer a vital counterweight to any UKIP influence, and if the worst came to the worst as a result of choices made outside Scotland, with a Tory-UKIP coalition, a large SNP group at Westminster will give Scotland the most clout.
Second, Labour benefits the most from Westminster election rules because unequal constituency sizes means they can win more seats in England than the Tories with fewer votes. As a result of this electoral anomaly, people in Scotland can get the best of both worlds Labour with enough seats in England and Wales to be the largest party, but needing SNP support to form the government. Votes for the SNP will help keep the Tories out at a UK level but also help keep a future Labour government honest and unable to forget Scotland.
Third, every vote for Labour in Scotland raises the unwelcome prospect of a Tory-Labour coalition, something commentators in England have been discussing this week. Labour have not ruled out going into coalition with the Tories, unlike the SNP. It’s a fundamental line in the sand for them the SNP will do everything in their power to keep the Tories out.
By contrast Labour were happy to form a coalition with the Tories for the No campaign, so who says they won’t do it again at Westminster?
Labour’s “keep the Tories out” tactic looks well past its sell by date. As one former adviser to Johann Lamont said, a more realistic attitude among voters is likely to be: “If you can vote SNP and get a Labour government then what’s the point of voting Labour?”
Whatever the outcome, one thing we do know is that a surge from the SNP betters the chance of a hung parliament so Scotland’s votes matter, at long last.
But let’s not forget why we need this to happen. Every time until now, when a proposal for Scottish devolution has gone through Westminster it has been weakened.
The Scotland Act 1998 didn’t give Scotland all the powers proposed by the Constitutional Convention and the Scotland Act 2012 didn’t have everything recommended by Calman. And remember Jim Murphy was said to be personally involved in downgrading Labour’s Devolution Commission status and its proposals.
Even further back, devolution itself was initially scuppered by the 40% rule amendment that was passed by a cross-party anti-devolution coalition of MPs.
When Scotland doesn’t hold the balance of power at Westminster, Westminster backslides on its promises to Scotland. There is an opportunity, with a strong group of pro-real home rule MPs, to change the previous trend and have the devolution proposals strengthened as they go through Parliament. This time can be different for Scotland.