The intangibles and immeasurables of the Open in every year set the odds against it happening, but there’s a strong feeling that the 140th championship could well be a proper shoot-out among the best players on the globe.
Royal St George’s is perhaps the least loved of the nine Open venues the Australian Steve Elkington, when asked to rank it, said it was 10th in his list but the suggestion that the “quirky” nature of the course leads to odd, undeserving champions does not stand up to scrutiny.
One could make a case that the 1993 championship was one of the greatest in Open history, with more top-ranked players in at the death than any other in recent times and Greg Norman shooting 64 in the final round to overhaul defending champion Nick Faldo taking his second and last Claret Jug.
Walter Hagen and Henry Cotton disprove the suggestion further from earlier eras.
St George’s may retain more anachronistic elements than many other Open venues but, sympathetically prepared, it’s still a great modern test.
In 2003, when Ben Curtis emerged from the golfing equivalent of a multiple pile-up on the back nine on Sunday, the set-up was completely wrong, the R&A spooked by Norman’s 267 aggregate in ’93 into having fairways with no safe landing areas.
It’s different this time.
A firm course, burned-off rough and the promise of steady winds up to 20mph all weekend suggest that we’ll have a true test of traditional seaside conditions, perfect for bringing the cream to the top of the leaderboard again.
The charge to promote Rory McIlroy to the head of that queue seems less about his undeniably fabulous win in the US Open rather than that golf feels it needs an appealing and fresh character like the 22-year-old to lead the game out of the dark corners the previous chief, Tiger Woods, ventured into.
At 8-1, however, odds that Woods only attained after three Open victories, it all seems a little excessive.Don’t write off RoryIt would be foolish to write off McIlroy entirely, and the suspicion that he struggles in the wind might go the same way as the similar belief he’d crack again with the lead at Congressional after what happened at Augusta.
McIlroy has led at some point in all of the last four majors, and with a little fortune and fortitude could have won them all.
However, he is all too human thank goodness and some kind of reaction to Congressional and the hysterical attention thereafter seems likely.
Rorymania has deflected attention from Luke Donald and Lee Westwood (both 12-1), the top two players in the world rankings, who were both getting slightly defensive in recent weeks as this Open loomed.
Justify your ranking, and so you should on home soil, is the covert message to both players.
It also applies to the remainder of England’s celebrated but majorless Generation Next, including Justin Rose (50-1), Ian Poulter (value at 66-1) and Paul Casey (out of form and 80-1).
Both Donald and Westwood are eachway bankers, but the new Scottish Open champion seems the better bet due to his nagging consistency and his magnificent short game.
Everyone’s chipping and holing-out will come under pressure this week because the St George’s greens are so hard to hold and fringed by multiple run-offs and hollows, and the world and his aunt knows that chipping is Westwood’s weakness.
Poulter is likely to react best to patriotic promptings, as he did when the Open was last south of the border, at Royal Birkdale in 2008.
He can grind it in bad weather, and holing out is one of his biggest strengths.Choi good valueWhoever makes the bid, this appears Britain’s best chance in years to get hands on the Claret Jug for the first time since Paul Lawrie in 1999 at Carnoustie.
Graeme McDowell has suggested he’s getting back to his best, and he has the all-round game, especially if it blows, and he can keep the occasional aberration off his card.
Europe has a variety of candidates led by Martin Kaymer (28-1), for whom the course shapes pretty well. He’s also a fearless putter.
For all the money coming in on a resurgent Sergio Garcia (33-1) of late, the course does not set up well for him, as the lighter rough and funky greens make for less of a ball-strikers’ course and more of a putting examination.
The southern hemisphere contingent looks stronger than ever, and is led by Jason Day (50-1), the 23-year-old Australian who has been second in the last two majors.
This is an entirely different examination, but the Masters champion Charl Schwartzel (40-1) is a significant threat and there has been much interest in the chances of Retief Goosen (50-1), who has gone to the belly putter and recovered his form on the greens.
From Asia, KJ Choi (40-1) attracts plenty of money for the way he mounts a challenge at almost every major championship. He often falls away at the death, but gives great value for a top-five finisher.
The American contingent of 52, more than twice that of any other nation, is too large and talented to write off as has been done in recent weeks.Americans’ travailsIt’s mildly surprising not to see Phil Mickelson below the 40-1 bar, but justifiable given his Open record and apparent inability to adapt.
His noises about “starting again” on links at 41 seem like desperation, and some are already questioning whether he may be past his best.
Nick Watney (33-1) is a coming man, Matt Kuchar (50-1) is consistent and Rickie Fowler (80-1) has to win a tournament someday, surely.
But one does not get the impression that any of this new generation of Americans has “got” links golf yet, or the range of escape shots you simply must have in the bag to win.
Which probably leaves the American drought continuing, and celebration closer to home and specifically at home.
A hard-running course makes the only serious deficiency in his game lack of length a non-factor, and so far at every turn he has justified his new reputation as the best player in the world.
But for one the winning of a major championship, and Luke Donald will end that discussion by Sunday night.