Can someone please explain what just happened? I’m off to get married, take a fortnight honeymooning, leaving (some of) Scotland debating who is going to take its sixth seat at the European elections.
I’ve just gone back to look at some polls from around that time to ensure I’m not misremembering, but it really did look like a three-way fight between the Lib Dems, the Greens and Ukip. Despite heavy SNP spinning about winning a third seat, hindsight shows that was never really on the table.
I think it was fair to assume, then, that Ukip weren’t going to get a seat in Scotland. Surely, with their boots on the ground, the Liberals would turn out enough folk to squeeze back in. Either that or the bounce currently provided by being the “cool” party of Yes would get the Greens over the line.
Wrong. Ukip nabbed it, and fairly comfortably. Yeah, they were only a couple of percentage points ahead of the Greens in the popular vote but it was a consistent voting pattern across Scotland that saw David Coburn sent to Brussels. Incidentally, I still find this irony of the highest order.
What does this tell us? Probably that a lot of concerns highlighted by Ukip, over immigration for example, resonate in Scotland just as they resonate in the rest of the UK. Rightly or wrongly, I’ve heard enough people talk bitterly about jobs going to people from Eastern Europe in particular to know there is a feeling of resentment amongst some communities.
It also shows how disillusioned people are with the main parties. Make no mistake, Ukip picked up a wedge of protest voters who didn’t know where else to turn.
Despite all of this, it’s time for a bold prediction. I’m going to put my money where my mouth is (literally, once I’ve found a bookies) and bet that Ukip won’t return a single seat at the 2015 General Election. North or south of the border.
Why? Well, first off there’s the voting system. I can’t see Ukip maintaining enough of a groundswell anywhere to win a majority in a single seat. If Westminster was decided on a more proportional basis they almost certainly would have sneaked someone in, but not with first past the post.
Also, I’ll refer you back to my protest vote. A good number of first-time Ukip voters will decide they won’t be a party of government and slink back to the ones they know. Add to that the fact more people will actually turn out next year and that will almost certainly dilute the vote further.
As for the other parties, I’m sure most will be pretty happy other than the Lib Dems. The SNP came out on top again, only losing a tiny fraction of their support compared to 2009, while Labour, the Conservatives and Greens all upped their share of the vote.
Thoughts most welcome.