Yesterday I was in London speaking at an event hosted by top communications consultancy Weber Shandwick called “Coalition Cocktails”.
Alongside some leading think tanks, I was discussing the possible post-May mix and whether Westminster could be shaken up by Nicola Sturgeon’s block of SNP MPs turning the benches tartan.
With the polls still pointing to no overall winner in the coming election, the main parties are starting to plan for the options of a coalition, minority government or some form of confidence and supply.
While party manifestos are trumpeted as the definitive position of each political party, what actually counts in coalition negotiations and vote deals is what the parties can agree on. If the general election fails to return a clear result, each party will have to review its manifesto to decide which policies are their sacrificial lambs and which ones are red lines.
In terms of outcomes, the story thus far is this: Labour say you need to be the largest party to form the government, which isn’t actually true that will be determined by who can command a majority in the House of Commons. They have also ruled out a coalition with the SNP, who didn’t plan to go into coalition with them anyway.
I do, however, find it difficult to believe Labour actually prefer a Tory government to working with the SNP. If they let David Cameron back into Downing Street well let’s just say their ratings right now in Scotland would be an ambitious target.
If the Tories pip Labour to the post, they are unlikely to have a majority and will take what they can get, even if that means a highly unsavoury coalition with UKIP (which they should rule out now to prove their credibility) or a minority government if they have the nerve.
We know the SNP have ruled out any form of deal with the Tories. Also, David Cameron can’t be Prime Minister if there are more anti-Tory MPs than Tory MPs particularly if these anti-Tory MPs cooperate to deliver a majority in the Commons.
I know what my preference is. If the current numbers prove true for the SNP, it may be painful for Labour to work with the SNP who have just given the majority of their Scottish MPs their P45, but it would be better overall for the country to keep the Tories out.
Under David Cameron’s stewardship the Conservatives have continued to poorly serve Scotland and treat us an afterthought. The people of Scotland will not forget Mr Cameron did the dirty on us only hours after the referendum, diluting the delivery of the vow by tying it up with English Votes for English Laws (EVEL), instead of focusing on delivering anything remotely close to what was promised.
So, a form of confidence and supply between Labour and the SNP seems to be the best choice and most popular one amongst people in Scotland, too, according to the polls.
What could this mean in terms of policy agreement? What are the red lines?
The SNP say that any agreement with Labour whether confidence and supply or coalition would have to agree key issues, such as ending austerity (0.5% real terms spending increases), not renewing Trident and more powers for Scotland.
A coalition involves agreeing everything in advance, which has major drawbacks. Confidence and supply means you only agree some things, but the things above are what the SNP say they would insist on.
Voting purely issue by issue means that there is no agreement, in which case the SNP would vote with Labour (if they were government) and where they agreed, such as increasing minimum wage, and vote against where they are disagreed, such as Trident, a position which is gaining support from across the political spectrum.
A new survey of 500 candidates from across the parties published by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) this week showed that 80% would vote against replacing Trident.
Confidence and supply is a progressive arrangement setting out a modern form of politics, which is the norm in many other European countries and would shake up the cosy consensus of the Westminster establishment.
The SNP would keep a Labour govern-ment honest and make sure they can’t forget Scotland (as they’ve done before). Mr Miliband, in turn, would be forced to keep his attention on what Scotland wants and on the SNP’s more progressive agenda, there-fore he would be a better PM for the whole of Britain.
So my post-May mix for a cocktail would be a Scots Guard. I’m told it’s a favourite drink of the Scots Guard in the officers’ mess, packed with whisky, and a tangy twist.
I think a Scots block of SNP MPs on guard to stand up for Scotland’s interests and ensure Mr Miliband thinks more about the northern half of these isles, can only be a good thing. This would shake things up for the better. A gentle stir just won’t do.