The amount of money people will have in their pockets is the most important factor when it comes to deciding how they will vote in the independence referendum, according to new research.
ScotCen Social Research’s annual Scottish Social Attitudes survey, released last night, suggests many of the prominent debates in the campaign, such as on Europe, the pound, and welfare, are having little or no impact on how voters will vote.
The research found 52% of people would support independence, and only 30% oppose it, if they thought they would be £500 a year better off.
Conversely, only 15% would support independence and 72% would be opposed if they thought they would be £500 a year worse off.
Of those who think Scotland’s economy would be “better” under independence, 71% say they “will” or “think they are most likely” to vote yes.
In contrast, 86% of those who think the economy would be “worse” are inclined to vote no.
Such big differences indicate that voters’ perceptions of the economic consequences of independence are central to which way they are inclined to vote, researchers said.
However the survey also reveals neither side has yet succeeded in convincing a majority of the merits of their case.
While only 9% agree with the Yes campaign that they personally would be better off under independence, a minority of 29% accept the No argument that they would be worse off.
Most feel it would not make any difference.
With many voters still saying they do not have enough information about the consequences of the referendum’s outcome, Professor John Curtice, Research Consultant at ScotCen Social Research, said: “The referendum campaign is at risk of short-changing the people of Scotland.
“So far it appears to have done little to help them be clear and confident about the decision they have to make.”
More than two-thirds of voters from both the yes and no camps say an independent Scotland should be a member of the EU.
A third of Yes voters said it was doubtful Scotland would be allowed to continue in a currency union with the rest of the UK, a figure which increased to 39% of No supporters.