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Rise and rise of the loony fruitcakes

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Branded “loonies, fruitcakes and clowns” UKIP have been the butt of establishment political jokers for years.

But now they are the ones doing the laughing after big gains in theEnglish council elections and a very decent showing in the South Shields by-election where they finished second ahead of the Tories.

No wonder UKIP leader Nigel Farage, the only UKIP person anyone can name, was beaming.

There is talk already of a fundamental change in British politics, of a UKIP breakthrough, of a four-party race at the general election.

Such talk is premature.

Times are hard, people are hurting and there is no sign of things getting better any time soon.

People are angry and they want to protest and the traditional party of protest in UK politics, the Lib Dems, are now in the government.

So people are turning to UKIP to express their anger in much the same way as they turned to the Scottish Greens and Scottish Socialists at Holyrood in 2003.

UKIP may now have a clutch of councillors, a handful of Euro MPs but no MPs and no MSPs and certainly no power. Their detractors would say that apart from immigration and Europe they have no policies either.

So can we just dismiss what has happened as an insignificant blip on the political radar screen?

I would suggest not.

The rise and rise of UKIP is significant because of the effect it will have on the Tories. David Cameron has already given way to the right of the party on a firm pledge to have a “in/out” referendum on Europe.

There is no doubt that as the General Election in 2015 approaches, the Tories will move further to the right in an attempt to win back the ground newly won by UKIP.

There is no doubt that UKIP is the story of these local elections and the South Shields by-election,but there is another story too, one which in the longer term may have a much greater impact on the country.

At the general election in 2010 in South Shields the Lib Dems came in third place with 5000+ votes. On Thursday they came in seventh place with 352 votes and lost their deposit.

No one needs reminding that the Scottish Lib Dems were annihilated in the Scottish elections in 2011.

The Lib Dems are paying a high price at the ballot box for their bums on the seats of their ministerial Mondeos.

There are serious Lib Dems who believe that the party faces oblivion at the 2015 general election.

So what? Well, one way for the Lib Dems to try to revive the party’s fortunes is to pull out of the coalition which could force an early election.

Now that would be interesting.

Watch this space.