A £45 million black hole threatens to engulf roads, services and public projects in Angus.
A five-year capital budget document which was made public on Tuesday details a grim period for civic life in the county, with estimated resources of £89.5 million jarring against projected demands of £134.8m.
Council services take up the largest portion of available money, with a single new civic development a community campus and sports centre for Forfar only possible due to Scottish Government cash.
Dream projects such as the regeneration of south Montrose, a business park for Carnoustie and refurbishment for Brechin City Hall are very likely to fall off the radar for the rest of this period of administration.
Council leader Iain Gaul has released details before the budget setting process in February, the first time this has happened.
He told The Courier: “We knew there was going to be a shortfall in the capital plan and an adverse impact on the council’s prudential borrowing requirement, as indicated in reports by officers over the last few years since Montrose pool monies were parachuted in.”
The council has spent £8m of the £9m cost towards a new swimming pool for Montrose, work on which is due to finish soon.
Mr Gaul added: “It is important to remember this is a five-year rolling plan and … there are projects at risk of not being completed within those five years.”
This has been further complicated with the Scottish Government’s offer to part-fund a new Forfar Academy, an offer the council cannot turn down as it is needs replacing in the near future.
It all means an onerous task awaits all sections of Angus Council over the next four years.
A deficit of millions of pounds lies in the way of desired improvements to towns and villages, from library provision to business parks to road improvements.
The document released by the council shows a shortfall of at least £11.5 million for projects already agreed on, core roads maintenance, and waste collection.
The Courier understands the administration is confident it can meet this deficit but every civil project not agreed on is in danger of being put in cold storage indefinitely.
A large space lies a third of the way down the ordered list above, what could be affordable; below, what would require heavy subsidy to consider.
Mr Gaul told The Courier: “Many of the items below the line are obviously at risk of not being completed within the current plan. But we feel it is important to let the people of Angus know what the current situation is and not raise false hope.
“What ‘team Angus’ can give people is the assurance that we will work hard to maximise all available avenues of funding, to keep the number of projects at risk to a minimum.”
Mr Gaul added that moves to secure public or enterprise funding were afoot, and there may be difficult decisions which will disappoint some.
As a Kirriemuir councillor for the SNP, Mr Gaul said he has supported town centre improvements for some years but it will be a team effort to put Angus first during difficult times.
While already in financial plans, museum upgrades, road improvements and town centre enhancements are in a parlous position.
Flood prevention schemes and strategies in Brechin and Arbroath are identified as unaffordable without external funding, such as Scottish Government money.
A grant of £4.5m is proposed as needed for the Arbroath scheme, in tandem with a council contribution of £2.45m.
Entries for the Brechin High School replacement (£11.9m) and the Arbroath Schools Project (£10.5m) are towards the top of the budget list, under “unavoidable projects”.