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Better prospects for Scottish businesses

A strong month for manufacturing and the services sector contributed to an increase in output.
A strong month for manufacturing and the services sector contributed to an increase in output.

Short-term prospects for Scottish businesses continue to improve and are now at their highest level since the spring of 2011.

The latest business trends report from accountants BDO Scotland saw an improvement in all four measured indices output, optimism, employment and inflation last month.

The output measure climbed to a 26-month high of 96.8 from 94.9 in June. This is a fifth consecutive monthly increase, and above the 95-point level which indicates growth.

The uplift came on the back of an improvement in performance in the powerhouse services sector. which makes up more than two-thirds of the economy, and a strong month for manufacturing which built on the marginal growth seen in June.

The optimism measure, which predicts how confident businesses will be a half-year ahead, also continued an upward trajectory which began six months ago by crossing the growth tipping point to come in at 96.6.

BDO said companies had been emboldened by the recent upturn, and the number of firms which were now intending to recruit new staff also increased last month.

Finally, the inflation index decreased to 102.2 from 103.4 during the month, indicating that businesses expected financial pressures on their operations to decrease in the months ahead.

BDO Scotland head Martin Gill said: “It’s encouraging to see short-term business prospects improving and confidence in our economy continuing to strengthen.

“Indeed, all of our indices moved in the right direction this month, suggesting that the new Bank of England governor Mark Carney has joined at an opportune time.

“However one need only look at the last five years of zig-zagging economic growth and business confidence to know that sustained expansion will not be achieved easily.

“Carney’s decision to peg interest rates to unemployment levels is a positive step.”