It’s been a turbulent time in the property market with soaring mortgage rates and a cost-of-living crisis – what will happen to house prices in Tayside and Fife in 2024?
New figures from TSPC show property in the area has been remarkably resilient.
The average selling price increased by 3.7% between the first and last quarter of 2023.
Meanwhile, inflation has started to come down and the Bank of England has put a pause on increasing the base rate, which impacts mortgage rates, for now.
But this year is likely to remain a volatile time as economic pressures continue and a general election looms.
What does 2024 hold for house prices in Tayside and Fife? We asked local experts for their views.
Jim Parker, Fife Properties
Prediction: 1-3% increase in Fife.
“The Fife property market is still buoyant up to the £250,000 mark.
“The upper quartile (top 25%) of the housing market is taking longer to sell due to buyer affordability. This could see a boost if the Bank of England base rate drops from 5.25% to 4.5% or less.
“In 2024 three key indicators will influence property prices – inflation, unemployment and interest rates.
“If inflation continues to come down, base rates will ease and we could see average property prices in Fife increase by between 1% and 3%.”
Lindsay Darroch, Gilson Gray
Prediction: Property market to heat up by the summer.
“My feeling is the year will get off to a slow start with prices plateauing and there not be the usual new year rush to market.
“I anticipate that by spring the Bank of England will feel pressured into making a small cut to interest rates which will feed into mortgage rates.
“I think this, together with a hoped for improvement in the economy, will lead to the property market really heating up.
“During the spring, I would anticipate that stock levels will start to rise sharply as people feel more confident about moving and there will be a general feeling of the property market unlocking.
“I would predict an average price increase of 3% – a slow start but strong finish.”
Chris Todd, Lindsays
Prediction: The mood music is positive.
“The market is far more stable compared to 12 months ago and we are seeing that reflected in client confidence across Tayside.
“With interest rates unlikely to go higher – and talk of them falling come the summer – the mood music is positive.
“Bungalows and family-sized homes with gardens in areas such as the west end of Dundee and Broughty Ferry continue to do well.
“The flats market is more challenging. We have seen private landlords pull out of buy-to-let and place properties for sale, citing political decisions by the Scottish Government.”
Amber Cochrane, Verdala
Prediction: More confidence and luxury sales in 2024.
“In 2024, we expect to see an increase in the number of transactions taking place as more buyers return to the market and confidence builds.
“The rise of mortgage interest rates across 2023 and the continued economic challenges will continue to affect different price points within the market in varying degrees.
“I think the market up to approximately £250,000 will remain robust with little change in pricing.
“The premium market, beyond £500,000, will remain strong and maintain the current level. Dundee still makes an attractive and well priced offering for the high value buyer.
“The upper end of the mid-market (£350k to £500k) has already began to see a change in pricing. I predict further balancing as buyers adjust to higher costs of living – a lowering of 5% across this market point could be expected.”
Angela Wallace, TSPC
Prediction: Price drop for high value homes; increase for average value homes.
“With interest rates stabilising and confidence in the market increasing, I would expect to see a return to a strong spring market with buyer and seller confidence at a high.
“The economic climate may have an effect on affordability for families. We may see the knock-on effect of this coming through in sales of higher value homes and the need for more moderately priced homes.
“This, in turn, may see a decrease in the value of higher priced homes and an increase in the value of averaged priced properties.
“This is a very strong indicator that the property market is being driven by needs, affordability, and lifestyle. I believe we will see a robust 2024 with stability and growth.”
Peter Ryder, Thorntons
Prediction: Slow start but strong finish.
“The property market in Scotland will start slowly in 2024 before picking up, much like this year.
“Housing stock is increasing, but this figure is still low compared to historical numbers. This is helping to maintain property prices in Scotland.
“Initial competitive selling prices are vital to ensuring a property does sell.
“The demand for flats is coming back as buyers realise that being present within communities, and within walking distance of amenities, is advantageous.
“This push is coming from first and second-time buyers, as opposed to investors, who are beginning to feel the effect of legislation surrounding landlords.
“Bungalows have also seen an increase in demand due to an ageing population who typically prefer living in a single-storey home.
“My prediction for 2024 is the lower-than-normal housing stock will result in prices staying at similar levels.”
Gary Robertson, Possible
Prediction: Good year in cooler market
“The property market started slowly in 2023. Mortgage rates had risen sharply in the previous autumn and, coupled with a increasing utility and cost of living prices, many people looked at the market with a bit of uncertainty.
“Further into 2023, things started to pick up. There seemed to be an acceptance that the market had cooled to normal levels after a crazy couple of years.
“We agreed over 200 sales in Perthshire throughout the year and almost 60% of them where in the second half of the year.
“I believe 2024 will be a good year for the local property market. People will always have a need for upsizing, downsizing, relocating or taking their first step onto the property ladder.
“Mortgage rates are very much stabilising and even coming back down a touch which all bodes well for buyers and sellers alike. I think average property prices remaining the same in 2024.”
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