Al Pacino has been nominated for an Oscar for his turn as Jimmy Hoffa in the film The Irishman. The last time he picked up a statuette was in 1992 for Scent Of A Woman, a film so awful anyone under 40 may not have seen it or know of its existence.
It features a blind army colonel enjoying a last hurrah. Pacino punctuates the film with bursts of “hoo-haa” in a performance so scenery-chewing it’s a marvel there’s any background to shoot.
In one scene Pacino’s character implausibly knows how to tango, and does so with a beautiful woman, to the sentimental amazement of his young sidekick, and by extension, the audience. Schmaltz doesn’t cover it.
The idea of an elaborate dance with a blind participant seems fitting for 2020, the year of the constitutional tango. The first twirl occurred this week, when to nobody’s surprise Boris Johnson said no to Nicola Sturgeon’s request for Indyref2.
The tango is a strict dance that requires lots of practice. Performed by old pros it’s a beautiful thing. Johnson and the FM did it well.
Sturgeon got to show that she’s dancing for Scotland and that the PM is a cruel man, Johnson that he’s shuffling for Britain.
The audience were neither aroused nor surprised – it’s same old, same old.
The question is – which one of them is blind?
Sturgeon has promised Indyref2 in 2020. In public she means it. But then, she meant it when speaking publicly of another vote in 2018. Remember that? It didn’t happen.
SNP senior figures talk openly of there being no referendum until after a victory at the 2021 Holyrood election.
Kenny MacAskill, now MP for East Lothian, was slapped down by the party for saying the chance of Indyref2 happening in 2020 was nil, but he only said what everyone knows.
No doubt Sturgeon will keep the pretence up and carry on dancing, but from one perspective she looks like the blind one. Going through the old routine, buying time, still not sure how she makes a breakthrough.
Trouble is, she’s high in the polls, but low on reputation.
In a recent blog, the head of the Fraser of Allander Institute said the SNP had to end the magical thinking over the £9 billion gap between spending and revenue that exists in the nation’s accounts. When all the hoo-haa is dismissed, this is the matter at the heart of the Indy debate.
It is also a matter which increasingly bothers Nats. They can’t understand why the SNP rubbishes the idea of the £9bn deficit, but annually produces figures as the Scottish Government which confirm the gap.
To this end Finance Minister Dereck Mackay now promises to publish an alternative set of accounts, from the government, which gives the real SNP view of Scotland’s tax and spend. Alongside the party’s Growth Commission, it could prove fascinating, and maybe magical.
The Indy movement should note that the PM’s letter rejecting Sturgeon’s request focused not on the £9bn question – the usual line of attack by unionists on Indy – but on the Scottish Government’s record.
He said another vote would continue “the political stagnation that Scotland has seen for the last decade, with Scottish schools, hospitals and jobs again left behind.”
This is becoming a real problem for the FM. Public trust in the NHS and education is falling. The silence over new ideas is eerie. The reliance on blaming London tiresome. When the PM suggests she’s only dancing to distract from domestic problems, he makes a resonant point.
The FM neither has a strategy to break the legal impasse over referendum powers nor a plan to improve Scottish services. She’s just hoping that a big win in 2021 will somehow change things. Another year of this and Scots might become disillusioned with both Westminster and Holyrood.
The flip side of this is sheer numbers. Tens of thousands took to the streets of Glasgow in what is becoming a regular feature of Scottish life – the pro-Indy march. In an age of supposed apathy and distrust of politics, this is an astonishing phenomena.
So too the 45% support for the SNP at the ballot box, given the weakness in their core argument and poor performance, as already described.
This is democracy at its most simple. Close to half the nation supports an independence party, and who knows how many more might say Yes when forced to choose.
Against that, to say No appears to be blind to reality. Johnson can’t claim he is a champion of the ignored (in the north of England) while ignoring the voters of Scotland. The Institute for Government, along with various southern MPs, have spoken of another referendum as irresistible.
Johnson dances, as he has throughout his career, often seeming to not know the steps or where’s he going. He’s not a strategist, but a tactician with lucky bones. But there’s only so long he can stand on Scottish toes before the music changes. As for us, the audience, we are in for a dull year of predictable moves. Roll on 2021.