One in 10 pupils in Perth and Kinross attends a private school.
So in Courier Country it’s the area most likely to feel the impact of VAT on school fees.
Those fighting the so-called ‘education tax’ predict 20% of families with children in independent schools will withdraw them because of it.
But supporters say the number affected is likely to be far lower. The UK Government says the £1.8 billion revenue raised will pay for an extra 6,500 state school teachers.
Bosses of Kilgraston School, near Bridge of Earn, claimed VAT was a factor in its closure last August with £900,000 of debt.
So what impact has VAT on school fees had in Perth and Kinross since it was announced last July and imposed in January?
How many pupils have moved from private to state schools?
Some 2,240 children living in the region were in private education and 18,012 in state schools in 2022/23, according to the Scottish Council of Independent Schools and Scottish Government.
During this academic year (to January 16) 17 privately-educated pupils have moved into state schools. Perth and Kinross Council told us this in response to a request made under freedom of information legislation.
The number seems small. It’s less than 1% if the current population of privately-educated children is similar to that of 2022/23.
We can’t compare it to last year, as Perth and Kinross Council only created this data field in June 2024.
And we don’t know whether these children moved school because of the addition of VAT or for other reasons.
Is it too soon to judge the impact?
Andrew McGarva, rector of independent day school Morrison’s Academy, reckons it’s too early to draw any conclusions from these figures.
He reckons the true impact will only start to show in the new school year starting in August and September.
“The last thing people want to do is withdraw their child half way through a school year.
“We understand there are many, many families who are doing everything they can to keep their child in their school.”
Will there be fewer new enrolments?
His Crieff day school is one of five mainstream independent schools in Perth and Kinross Council area.
Mr McGarva also expects the impact to be greater on new enrolments than those already in school, who parents will be reluctant to remove from the friends, teachers and environments they know.
“What we are finding is people are definitely questioning the commitment more. Will the government bring in something else? Will there be more shocks to the system?
“I do expect there to be a reduction in pupil numbers because it has become more expensive. More people will stay in the state system.”
However, Labour MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife Claire Baker reckons the Perth and Kinross Council figures show we are not seeing the exit of pupils warned of.
“While there have been a small number of enrolment requests for pupils previously within private schooling, it seems the suggestion that removal of VAT exemption would create an immediate exodus of pupils from private schools was overstated.
“It remains the case that the focus of government should be on supporting state schools in delivering a quality education for every child, and in addressing the underlying causes of inequality, including in our education system.”
How much have fees risen at Perth and Kinross schools?
With the addition of VAT, fees per term for the eldest day pupils at Perth and Kinross independent schools have risen as follows:
- Ardvreck School – £7,370 to £8,476
- Craigclowan School – £6,075 to £6,925
- Glenalmond College – £9,700 to £11,060
- Morrison’s Academy – £6,200 to £6,810
- Strathallan School – £9,760 to £11,126
What impact on Perth and Kinross Council schools?
The schools the 17 formerly privately-educated pupils moved to this academic year were:
- St John’s Academy – 4 pupils
- Crieff High School
- Perth Academy
- Perth High School
- Breadalbane Academy (secondary)
- Dunning Primary School
- Forgandenny Primary School
- Fossoway Primary School
- Glendelvine Primary School
- Logiealmond Primary School
- Luncarty Primary School
Apart from St John’s Academy each of the schools took in between one and three pupils. Where three or fewer pupils joined the exact number was withheld to avoid identification.
The SCIS says the ‘education tax’ has has already forced hundreds of children out of private schools.
This, it says, will place an additional burden on state schools already struggling to cope with increased levels of violence, absenteeism and additional support needs.
But CEO Lorraine Davidson reckons it will be several years before we see the ‘full damage’ to the public sector.
“Every child who moves to the state sector will be an added cost to the taxpayer of £8,000 for a secondary pupil and £6,500 for a primary school pupil.”
Do Perth and Kinross schools have space for more pupils?
Overall, Perth schools have capacity to take more pupils.
Besides Perth High School – which was at 96.2% of its capacity in the last pupil census published – the region’s secondary schools were all well below full occupancy.
The new Perth High School will have the same pupil capacity as the existing one but a review is underway of the city’s secondary catchment areas which is likely to change its occupancy level.
A council spokesperson said: “In general terms, schools are staffed and classes configured for a whole school year which ensures that, wherever possible, additional pupils moving into schools during the school can be accommodated without issue.
“An alternative school would be offered where any pupil could not be accommodated in their catchment school in accordance with our admission policy.
“Parents also have the right to submit a placing request for another school if their child(ren) cannot be accommodated in their first choice of school.”
Conversation