The Scotch whisky industry will undoubtedly be seriously affected by Brexit. After all, France is the biggest export market by volume for Scotch, although exports to the US have higher value as Americans tend to buy rare and old malts whereas France buys cheap blends in bulk. Many other EU countries buy big volumes of the cratur, adding up to the biggest single market for it.
That would certainly be hit if the current open access to the EU ended. However, it is currently impossible for the industry to make definite plans as no one—including, one suspects, the entire UK Government — has a clue what shape Brexit will finally take. After all the drum beating and tub thumping by the Brexiteers about “sovereignty”, the fact is Brexit will be the longest, most complex and problem-riddled political divorce in history.
For a start, one can count the number of experienced trade negotiators in the UK on the fingers of one hand. Why? Because since 1974, all UK trade negotiations with the wider world were conducted by Europe. So we didn’t need any. What’s more, experienced trade negotiators don’t grow on trees and trade negotiations can last forever. One example — it took 300 Canadian trade negotiators seven years to reach their current limited trade deal with the EU.
Worse, the trio now charged with implementing Brexit — David Davis, Liam Fox and Westminster’s court jester, Boris Johnson — have so far shown scant appreciation of the Augean task they and the UK face. No wonder Downing Street is keen to delay invoking Article 50 as long as possible.
This essentially means the whisky industry — along with all other British exporters — will have to bide its time, make contingency plans, put some projects on the back burner, try to increase exports to non-EU countries and learn to live in a limbo of uncertainty until 2020 and well beyond. It will be tough for the big boys and even tougher for those small distilleries launched amid such high hopes in recent years…
What can I suggest? Well, what about pouring ourselves a large dram and trying to forget it all.
