I don’t know whether people in the whisky industry are incurable optimists, but it has surprised me how very few industry spokespeople have commented critically on the possible effects of Brexit.
True, Scotch whisky is sold everywhere in the world and will continue to sell after Brexit, but the EU is a very major market for Scotch (France is its biggest single market by volume) and even the best outcome of the 2018 negotiations could lead to some tariffs and non-tariff barriers being imposed.
Also, vast quantities of whisky go to Europe in bulk, either in 25,000-litre road tankers or in similar-sized “tanktainers” for dilution and bottling in their destination country. I suspect they may well be adversely affected.
The Scotch Whisky Association has generally taken an optimistic line, expressing hopes that Brexit will deliver a package that would still give the industry reasonable access to EU markets while allowing it to expand and exploit other markets around the globe.
In a way, Scotch whisky holds quite a cherished position, rather like champagne, cognac and certain other drinks. Overseas drinkers who like a certain malt, or blend for that matter, are not going to switch to some local-distilled hooch just because the Scotch price goes up a few euros a bottle. Whisky is generally quite an expensive drink, even in countries where alcohol taxes are far lower than in the UK, so — provided the price rise isn’t too steep — they’ll keep buying and drinking it.
I accept the whisky industry faces the same problems as so many others. They cannot really plan ahead until they know the exact outcome of the current UK-EU trade talks. That won’t be reached until this autumn, followed by several months of haggling and ratification by the EU27 up until March 2019.
True, whatever the outcome, the whisky industry is rooted and historically bound to Scotland — so distilling will continue here indefinitely. That is not the case with many other industries, companies and banks. If there’s scant progress by March this year, many will start moving from Britain to the continent or Ireland.
2018 will be Britain’s most difficult year since 1940. However, I’m sure the whisky industry will survive, as it has survived many previous dark years of adversity.
