Stirling and Strathallan is shaping up to be one of the most interesting results of the election.
It’s one of the few constituencies that can lay claim to being a three-way race, suggesting an old saying – that Stirling is the key to Scotland – may prove true once more on July 4.
Here’s a look at Stirling’s voting record, and what the polls predict will happen this time round.
Why is Stirling so unique?
Since 1983, voters in Stirling have elected MPs from the Conservatives, SNP and Labour at different general elections.
This is relatively unusual, with constituencies usually a two-horse race.
Historically, Stirling has also proved to be a bellwether seat, backing the party that would go on to win the election overall.
Senior MPs booted from office as loyalties shift
Voters in Stirling have shown they are comfortable switching their vote.
It was a lesson then Scottish Secretary Michael Forsyth learnt the hard way in 1997, when he was booted from office by his Stirling constituents in a Labour landslide nationally.
He’d served as the area’s MP for 14 years but Labour’s Dame Anne McGuire wiped out his narrow majority of just over 700 votes.
“The fact of politics is that you live and die by the sword of the ballot box,” Mr Forsyth said after his defeat.
But just as allegiances had switched in 1997, in 2015 voters once again showed they were willing to look elsewhere on the ballot.
As the SNP swept Scotland, Stirling was one of the biggest losses for Labour, with Dame Anne’s replacement unable to hold on.
Since then, rather than a straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives, Stirling has switched between the SNP and Conservatives, with Labour often coming in a close third place.
Despite securing a majority of over 10,000 in 2015, the largest any MP for Stirling had ever received, the SNP’s Steven Paterson lost out to the Conservative challenger Stephen Kerr in the snap election of 2017.
But two years later voters changed their minds once again, opting for the former SNP MEP Alyn Smith.
The area had above average support for remaining in the EU in the 2016 referendum, and Mr Smith’s MEP credentials clearly appealed to voters.
What do the polls say about the 2024 general election?
Mr Smith will be hoping to buck the tradition of single-term Stirling MPs on July 4.
And the polls predict he will confidently win as the Conservative vote shrinks.
The latest MRP mega-poll, which predicts how each constituency might vote, suggest Mr Smith will secure 43%.
If the results of the YouGov study were replicated, Labour would receive 27% of the vote, up from just 8% in 2019.
The Conservative vote share, however, is predicted to collapse from 34% at the previous election to 16%.
Read more:
Conversation