The SNP held on in Dundee against Labour at the Westminster election in a vote that will have felt too close for comfort.
The scale of the surprise surge for Labour means the party can look to the next Holyrood election in 2026 with some confidence.
How close was the Westminster contest?
When the votes were counted on July 5, SNP MP Chris Law clung on against a strong challenge from Labour by just 675 votes.
Compare that with the 12,000 votes majority in his old Dundee West constituency five years earlier.
In the neighbouring Arbroath and Broughty Ferry seat, which includes parts of the city’s east end, SNP MP Stephen Gethins won ahead of Labour by 859 votes.
In 2019, ex-Dundee East MP Stewart Hosie – who retired at this election – gained over 13,000 more votes than his nearest Tory rival.
What’s the state of play in Holyrood?
The two Dundee constituencies in the Scottish Parliament were among the safest in the country for the SNP in 2021, when the last Holyrood election was held.
Joe FitzPatrick won by a margin of more than 40% ahead of Labour in the west. His constituency is in Mr Law’s much larger Westminster patch.
SNP finance chief Shona Robison won by a similar margin in neighbouring Dundee City East. Her seat includes areas represented by Mr Law and neighbouring MP Mr Gethins.
Can Labour bridge the gap?
Polling expert Allan Faulds, who runs Ballot Box Scotland, warned taking the two Holyrood seats will be tough for Labour.
He told The Courier: “The majorities there are quite significant.
“They’re probably not going to be as vulnerable at a Scottish Parliament election as they were at Westminster.”
But Dundee Labour MSP Michael Marra, who hopes to be the candidate against Mr FitzPatrick, is confident.
He said: “Labour will put up a very good fight, and we’ll throw everything at it.
“Dundee will be critical to Anas Sarwar becoming first minister. In this election is we have to win across all of Scotland.”
One Labour source believes the party would have taken Dundee Central with more time to prepare.
They said: “We had problems with selections. If that had all gone smoother, it would have been winnable.”
But the SNP remain hopeful of holding on.
Dundee MSP Ms Robison said the SNP had delivered for the city.
She added: “The people of Dundee put their trust in the SNP again earlier this month and we will continue to work tirelessly to retain and regain trust.”
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry MP Mr Gethins said: “There are few MSPs who work as hard as Joe and Shona.
“I’d be confident of them winning. But nothing should be taken for granted.”
Read more:
Conversation