John Curtice says SNP in ‘doldrums’ despite Dundee election wins

First Minister John Swinney had celebrated the results, which strengthened the SNP's city council majority, saying it showed the depth of trust between his party and Dundee.

By Alasdair Clark

October 9 2024, 1:03pm

Polling expert Sir John Curtice. Image: Mhairi Edwards/DC Thomson.

SNP victories in two Dundee by-elections were not an unqualified success, according to politics guru Sir John Curtice.

The polling expert highlighted a significant fall in support in Lochee and Strathmartine last week, compared with 2022, despite the wins over Labour and Lib Dems.

First Minister John Swinney had celebrated the results, which strengthened the SNP’s city council majority, saying it showed the depth of trust between his party and Dundee.

He said it was evidence of a “strong recovery” in the nationalists’ performance after a bruising general election saw their hold over the city slashed to just a 2% lead – down from over 30%.

Looking back at the results, Sir John said: “Although the SNP held the two seats both by-elections witnessed a substantial fall in SNP support compared with two years ago.

SNP ‘not back in driving seat’

SNP John Swinney Nicola Sturgeon — Sir John Curtice said the SNP was yet to recover after a drop in support following the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon. Image: PA

“The party still has much to do to drag itself out of the electoral doldrums into which it has fallen since Nicola Sturgeon decided to stand down in February last year.”

The elections were called after the death of Lochee Labour councillor Charlie Malone, and the resignation of former council chief John Alexander in Strathmartine.

The SNP’s share of first preferences was down 10 points on 2022 to 35% in Strathmartine.

In Lochee, the nationalist vote share fell by around six points to 37% of first preferences.

For Labour, the vote share was up four points in Strathmartine.

One vote behind Lib Dems

But the party came third behind the Liberal Democrats, who secured one more vote. Both parties achieved about 27% of votes.

In Lochee, Labour’s share of first preferences was down just 0.2 points to 35.6%.

Public polling suggests a significant proportion of those who backed Sir Keir Starmer in July are unhappy about the winter fuel payment.

Dundee by-election results ‘a clear warning to Scottish Labour’

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. Image: PA

Speaking to The Courier, Sir John said: “These by-election results are a clear warning to Scottish Labour that the outcome of the election in July does not necessarily mean that it is well set to win the 2026 Holyrood election.

“Rather they are a reminder that its fortunes between now and then could well depend on what make voters make of the new UK Labour government — and it appears that that government has hit electoral turbulence rather early.”