That Nicola Sturgeon is steadily losing her touch has now been clear for more than six months.
It all began with her bizarre de facto referendum plan, which left the independence movement in a cul de sac and SNP unity dangerously frayed.
It was then accentuated by the utterly chaotic Gender Recognition Reform Bill process.
Both these issues have led to significant falls in support for both the SNP and independence.
Indeed, the situation is now so severe that almost a third of SNP voters want the UK Tory government to save them from its own party’s legislation.
The extent of Nicola Sturgeon’s increasing decline is perhaps best exemplified by the debacle surrounding the publication of her tax returns.
We were confidently informed this publication was an attempt “to promote transparency in public office”.
Sadly, for the First Minister, the only thing that was transparent was that this was an attempt to distract from her other significant woes – and a pretty shambolic and hypocritical one at that.
Nicola Sturgeon tax returns raise questions of communication
When asked repeatedly about when she first learned her husband had loaned the SNP – his employer and, incidentally, the party she leads – more than £100,000, Sturgeon claimed she could not recall the “exact” time (and was seemingly unwilling to provide a ballpark timeframe, either).
She then went on to insist that it was not her business what her husband did with his own money.
“My husband is an individual,” she said. “And he will take decisions about what he does with resources that belong to him in line with that.”
Putting aside the questions this raises about proper communication between the SNP’s leader and Chief Executive, a.k.a. the Sturgeon/Murrell household, which has after all been a feature of previous political scandals, it is also grossly hypocritical.
Last year, Sturgeon was quite happy to chastise Rishi Sunak over his wife’s financial affairs, claiming Akshata Murty’s non-dom status put Sunak in “a very, very difficult position” and showed he was in a “completely different universe”.
It is hard to imagine the Sturgeon of old forcing herself into such an absurdly inconsistent position.
But it was not just Sturgeon’s answers on this dubious affair that were majorly misjudged.
Presumably to try to show some empathy with the current cost-of-living crisis, Sturgeon tried to make much of not having taken a pay rise since 2008/9.
But this is laughable when you consider the size of her salary, which is about six times the Scottish average.
Equally, to emphasise that you do not need to take a salary increase, at a time when you are denying one to public servants on the lowest wages, is crass at best and insulting at worst.
Slater tax returns pose further problems for Nicola Sturgeon
The situation is even more risible when you consider the case of hapless Scottish Green minister Lorna Slater, who – for reasons known only to her – decided to follow Nicola Sturgeon’s lead and publish her own tax returns.
This revealed that Slater – a bastion of revolutionary, anti-capitalist zeal, scourge of private enterprise and staunch defender of public services – actually has private medical insurance.
Slater herself provided – to my mind a perfectly legitimate – defence that she needs access to private care because of her own medical situation.
But Sunak was afforded no such leeway by the Scottish Greens when he refused to say whether he had private medical cover or not.
Indeed, the Scottish Greens’ health spokesperson said Sunak’s refusal to answer “[flew] in the face” of the “integrity, professionalism and accountability” he promised on entering Number 10.
Of course, hypocrisy and sanctimony are not a new phenomenon in the Scottish Green Party, but that Sturgeon did not see the potential for this hypocrisy to be exposed is.
Shambles a sign of a leader in decline
Given the above, it is perhaps no surprise the actual publication of the tax returns was a shambles as well, with Nicola Sturgeon’s personal bank account details accidentally being included alongside the returns themselves.
Nicola Sturgeon has published 8 years worth of tax returns, ahead of her semi-regular Monday Q&A thing. Essentially it's just her £140k FM/MSP salary (which she takes at 2009 levels due to a pay freeze), and she pays a large chunk of it into her pension: https://t.co/iCl3Mt3iF2
— Philip Sim (@BBCPhilipSim) February 6, 2023
The SNP was quick to point out the error did not put the First Minister at risk of fraud although whether she would realise, given she apparently does not miss more than £100,000 leaving her husband’s bank account, is another question entirely.
At the very least, the error was egregious and embarrassing, and left Sturgeon and her team – once such canny political operators – looking well past their best.
All this provides further evidence that Sturgeon is now in the twilight of her time as First Minister.
Her missteps are increasing, and it is costing the SNP support.
The lack of a suitable – or, indeed, any – successor may well mean she stays in office for some time yet.
But it is clear from the publication of her tax returns alone that Nicola Sturgeon’s departure from Bute House is now a question of when, not if.
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