Comment: Are the Scottish Tories’ target seats all that outlandish?

By Kieran Andrews

May 5 2017, 5:39pm

Deputy First Minister John Swinney and Environment Secretary Roseanna Cunningham at Bells Sports Centre, Perth, where the SNP lost control of Perth and Kinross Council to the Conservatives.

A few hours after June’s snap general election was called, I managed to get hold of a list of Scottish Conservative target seats.

Some seemed reasonable, others optimistic, and most people would be forgiven for thinking the Tory leadership had gone completely bonkers by the time the bottom of the list was reached.

The council elections suggest it is definitely game on.

The Conservatives' target seats for June's general election — The Conservatives’ target seats for June’s general election

Below is that list with the closest local authority result, including changes from 2012, to compare the parties who secured the largest number of councillors yesterday:

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk/Borders Council: CON 15 (+5); SNP 9.
Dumfries and Galloway/Dumfries and Galloway Council: CON 16 (+3); LAB 11 (-1); SNP 11.
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine/Aberdeenshire Council: CON 23 (+9); SNP 21 (-8).
Moray/Moray Council: SNP 9 (-1); IND 8 (-2); CON 8 (+5).
Banff and Buchan/Aberdeenshire Council: CON 23 (+9); SNP 21 (-8).
East Renfrewshire/East Renfrewshire Council: CON 7 (+2); SNP 5 (-1).
Perth and North Perthshire/Perth and Kinross Council: CON 17 (+7); SNP 15 (-2).
Aberdeen South/Aberdeen City Council: SNP 19 (+3); CON 11 (+8).
Edinburgh South West/Edinburgh City Council: SNP 19 (-2); CON 18 (+7).
Stirling/Stirling Council: SNP 9 (-1); CON 9 (+5).

Now of course there are a great many caveats here.

First of all the Westminster constituency and local council boundaries are far from exactly the same, while different voting systems may well lead to different voting habits.

Secondly, the varied turnout and massive majorities enjoyed by a good few of the incumbent SNP candidates, who will now be knocking their pan in getting round doors over the next four and a bit weeks, means anyone rushing to firm conclusions about individual results in a month’s time is a fool.

What this does suggest is that these seats are very much up for grabs, notwithstanding the fact it is very unlikely all will fall.

Could the Tories do with some expectation management? Senior sources were looking at the results in the North East and briefing that Gordon, held by a certain Alex Salmond, “has come into play”.

That is alongside the aforementioned seats and a few others where the party has done well.

It could be the Scottish Conservatives are being set up for a hard fall on general election night, but most of us thought the same about the SNP two years ago.