Luck is the X factor in political careers – the great unknown. It can play a greater or lesser role at different stages of a political life. But it is always present, as has been recognised throughout history.
Ancient Roman culture placed such an emphasis on luck that they created a God for it, Fortuna.
And as the 17th-century Cardinal Jules Mazarin of France once noted, probably apocryphally, the most important question of a general is not whether he is skilful, but whether he is lucky.
Luck is the reason Liz Truss rose to the pinnacle of British politics, the reason Donald Trump became President Trump, and the reason Humza Yousaf became First Minister.
After all, who can deny that Yousaf’s political life is based largely on this mysterious X factor? Indeed, his very emergence as a politician is rooted not in skill or ability, but good fortune.
His good luck began in 2011, when he was selected as an SNP list MSP candidate for the Glasgow region.
Few expected him to actually win. But he was in the right place at the right time as the SNP won an unprecedented majority victory.
Lucky.
Now in parliament, he was equally fortunate that his former boss, Alex Salmond, was also the First Minister.
A ministerial role, therefore, came quickly, despite Yousaf’s relative youth and inexperience. And he was increasingly viewed as a Nationalist rising star – often, but not always, a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In 2016, Nicola Sturgeon made him Minister for Transport and, despite a growing reputation for incompetence, continued to promote him, eventually to Cabinet Secretary for Health.
Again, lucky.
Humza Yousaf’s luck turned at the wrong time
Any lingering doubts about whether Fortuna favoured Humza Yousaf for the top job were extinguished when his only real rival as Sturgeon’s chosen successor, Derek Mackay, was forced to resign from government amid a scandal over inappropriate messages he sent to a teenager.
Yousaf therefore became the Sturgeon continuity candidate by default.
By the time of Sturgeon’s resignation, there simply was not anyone else left standing with the profile or experience to take on the role.
Again, lucky.
The problem for Yousaf is that the vagaries of luck work both ways. Fortuna can smile on you. But she can also turn her back on you.
Between 2011 and 2023, luck had very much worked in his favour. But it has now completely run out.
The reality is that Yousaf took over the SNP at a time when support for the Nationalists was already stagnating and declining.
The SNP had been in power for 15 years – generally the maximum lifespan of any party in power. And its policy problems were mounting.
There were issues in all devolved departments. And the public was finally wearying of every negative development being blamed on Westminster.
At the same time, the Scottish Labour Party – in the wilderness for more than a decade – was finally beginning to reassert itself, presenting a significant challenge to the electoral base built by Salmond and sustained by Sturgeon.
Thus, Yousaf became First Minister when the SNP was already on a downswing.
Bad luck.
Tide has turned for party and its leader
Yet Fortuna was not finished here.
Humza Yousaf has also been gifted the police investigation into the SNP’s finances.
Of course, he knew this was ongoing before he became First Minister. But he cannot have imagined the scope of the issues it would uncover, or the scale of the crisis it would precipitate in his party and government.
His programme for government speech earlier this week is a case in point.
This was a chance for Yousaf to set the agenda, to reset his premiership and to try to regain the initiative.
Unfortunately for him, this proved impossible.
His party treasurer, the MSP Colin Beattie, was taken into custody by police that morning as part of the same probe that had earlier led to the arrest of former SNP Chief Executive, Peter Murrell, and a forensic search of the home he shares with Sturgeon.
Thus, Yousaf’s great relaunch was not just overshadowed, it was totally eclipsed.
Again, bad luck.
Humza Yousaf says the SNP 'not facing bankruptcy' pic.twitter.com/r2h94sgV3L
— Andrew Learmonth (@andrewlearmonth) April 20, 2023
It is, of course, a great irony that the X factor that propelled Yousaf to high office is the same X factor that will see him lose it.
Fortuna, as Yousaf is quickly realising, is a cruel mistress.
He and the SNP might hope that if they can somehow sort out some of the problems facing the party, the tide will change. But this seems unlikely.
Why?
Because the insurmountable problem Yousaf now faces – for the first time in his political career – is that he is just unlucky.
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