Turmoil doesn’t quite cover the scale of the weekend’s seismic events.
I’ll admit that after Boris Johnson’s shock departure as an MP (and the bombastic resignation statement oh-so characteristic of his self-styled victimhood) I thought that the big politics stuff was finished until at least Monday.
But in this UK, at this time, we should always assume that we are only ever one breaking news alert away from political meltdown.
So was Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest on Sunday the most shocking event since the last one? Or something that we should have seen coming?
I think it’s a bit of both.
Following the arrest of the SNP’s former party chairman and its former treasurer, it isn’t altogether surprising that the former party leader might face questioning too.
After their respective arrests, all three were released without charge pending further investigation.
But the fact that it was somewhat predictable that Nicola Sturgeon would be arrested and questioned by police during their probe into SNP party finances does not detract from the earthquake it has caused.
Arrest limits Nicola Sturgeon’s ability to communicate
This is a huge moment for the SNP.
Nicola Sturgeon was, and is, a towering figure in their party.
She was their reliable, steady hand. During her time as leader she was known for her unflappability. She was not easily ruffled, and always seemed just that little bit better prepared than her opponents.
Her arrest marks the beginning of the biggest fight of her career in public life.
Following her release without charge, the former First Minister released a statement on Twitter, saying: “I know beyond doubt that I am innocent of any wrongdoing.”
Which brings us to Nicola Sturgeon’s greatest strength – her ability to communicate.
While the police investigation is ongoing, she is unable to make use of the most effective tool in her armoury.
And despite the explosive events of the weekend, the SNP is still very much in limbo.
It’s a waiting game until the police or the procurator fiscal show their hands.
Which, of course, leaves room for speculation – much of it ill-advised, given the fact that this is very much a live case.
Nicola Sturgeon arrest suggests equal treatment for public figures
On Twitter, Nicola Sturgeon’s supporters proclaim her innocence.
They cite the careful and cautious way she approached politics throughout her career in public life, and say it is highly unlikely that she would be daft enough to be involved in serious wrongdoing.
Her opponents are equally vocal – citing the culture of secrecy and lack of transparency in the SNP that developed under her watch.
Some have also criticised the police for their approach to this case.
But assuming the police have just cause for the action they have taken, I would far rather live in a country where public figures are held to the same standard as everybody else than one where they can expect favourable treatment. The Met investigation into Downing Street parties comes to mind.
Until the investigation into SNP finances is either progressed or abandoned, we have no way of knowing whether the police were justified in making such high-profile arrests.
It is this ongoing uncertainty that has left people reeling.
And the current First Minister must be praying for clarity more than most.
Is ‘wait and see’ the best Humza Yousaf can wish for?
When Humza Yousaf became leader, he already faced a challenge in trying to step out of Nicola Sturgeon’s shadow.
Following this latest development, he appears more than ever to be a mere bystander to events, with no greater insight into the troubles plaguing his party than the rest of us.
This does not have the positive effect of absolving him from any alleged wrongdoing by those at the top of the party before he took over. It makes him look weak.
He is being buffeted from crisis to crisis, with no clear indication that he has a strategy for steering his party through.
‘Wait and see’ might be the approach the rest of us are left with, but it seems a risky one for the current First Minister.
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