The Scottish Labour faithful will gather in Glasgow this weekend, confident that they are on the road to power.
With the party on the ascendancy in the polls and likely to challenge the SNP in areas like Fife, political watchers are confident in predicting a victory for Keir Starmer at the General Election.
With the economy officially entering a recession, and the Conservatives facing a challenge from Reform UK, pollsters say Labour will start the official election campaign with a confident lead.
And in Scotland, where those in red rosettes have suffered bruising rejections from the electorate since 2015, campaigners sense some signs of change as they speak to voters about key policy pledges.
Although careful to manage the expectations of journalists, and keen not to appear overly arrogant to the electorate, insiders are quietly optimistic the election will see an increased number of Scottish Labour MPs returned to Westminster.
Could the SNP face a Labour upset in Fife?
I reported previously how constituency level polling suggests the SNP could be wiped out in Fife.
The January 15 MRP study predicted a win for Scottish Labour in Dunfermline, Kirkcaldy and Glenrothes, with the Liberal Democrats expected to retain the North East Fife seat.
While a surprise SNP loss in Dundee seems unlikely, if the estimated results played out it would be a strong recovery for Labour – who lost their sole seat in the Kingdom in 2019.
And Scottish Labour sources tell me there are early indications they could perform well.
The Dunfermline and Dollar candidate Graeme Downie has built a strong campaigning profile, taking on issues that matter in local communities such as health centre closures in West Fife.
In Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, which is currently held by Alba MP Neale Hanvey, insiders feel like it could be another seat they could perform well in.
Unison activist Wilma Brown, a former nurse, will ask for locals to elect her as the Scottish Labour candidate, and with the SNP yet to select their pick she has been able to begin her campaign early.
Despite the poll, the Glenrothes seat is expected to be much more challenging. While one insider said it “could be winnable”, they admit the SNP majority of nearly 12,000 may prove insurmountable.
Scottish Labour is also without a candidate for the seat, with the contest to select one suspended after party bosses discovered one of those in the running, well-known local councillor Altany Craik, had authored novels considered “too sexy and satanic”.
Scottish Labour leader expected to mount call for change
When Anas Sarwar takes to the stage to address his conference on Friday, he’s expected to make clear that the General Election is just a stepping stone.
After over 14 years of Conservative government in Westminster, and 17 years of SNP dominance at Holyrood, he’ll be able to draw on the record of both governments and set out why voters should look elsewhere.
The leader, who took over in 2021, told our politics podcast The Stooshie that he has been clear that the General Election is a stepping stone to 2026, when he will seek to convince voters that his party should form the next Scottish Government and that he should become first minister.
But with so much to gain, Labour has just as much or more to lose in the coming months.
Keir Starmer – who is expected to attend the conference in Glasgow – has had a challenging week.
He has struggled with a U-turn on a key green spending pledge and fresh antisemitism allegations against Labour’s candidate in the upcoming Rochdale by-election.
What is likely to be another steep loss for Rishi Sunak in Rochdale has instead become a sign disciplinary problems inside Labour have not been solved.
And reports suggest tensions are high in the leader of the opposition’s office, with former senior civil servant turned Labour chief of staff Sue Gray conducting a probe into policy leaks.
‘The public are watching closely’
These issues seem to have had an impact outside of Westminster too.
While still strong, Labour’s polling lead has has dropped to its lowest level since June 2023, according to Savanta.
The public are watching closely, and Anas Sarwar will doubtless be acutely aware of that as he pens his speech.
This scrutiny on Labour will only intensify as the General Election nears, and the party will have to handle challenges without crumbling to have a hope of convincing voters.
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