ALASDAIR CLARK: Humza Yousaf survived his first year with little to celebrate

Humza Yousaf has survived a year as first minister, but he could be forgiven for feeling he has little to celebrate.

Former Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy wryly noted he could at least celebrate being the first SNP first minister not to have been arrested.

Mr Yousaf’s journey to Bute House came after 12 years in ministerial offices.

The continuity candidate to replace Nicola Sturgeon, in theory there were few in the SNP better prepared to lead the Scottish Government.

But his first year has been dominated by challenges, most not of his own making, but which he has had to navigate regardless.

Within weeks of taking over, he faced the arrest of Ms Sturgeon and her husband, former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell while police probed party finances.

The duo were released without charge, but Operation Branchform is a spectre that continues to haunt the SNP.

The Sturgeon-era response to Covid-19 also caused upset. Mr Yousaf was forced to explain why the government had at first failed to disclose key Whatsapp messages between officials and ministers.

Unable to put clear blue water between his leadership and Ms Sturgeon’s, the first minister was forced to explain why the government had at first failed to disclose key Whatsapp exchanges – prompting claims of a cover up.

Away from these challenges, the daily grind of government has continued. Growing NHS waiting lists, increasing school violence and a host of other problems dominate.

General Election could become referendum on SNP government

With a general election looming, which the SNP has been dubbed a de-facto independence referendum, these are the topics prompting concern at the top of the party as it risks the vote turning into a referendum on the Scottish Government.

Humza Yousaf’s central challenge at the election is all but identical to Rishi Sunak’s, with both parties having spent so long in government.

He will have no choice but to convince Scots he is the man to provide new answers to the very real problems they are all too aware of.

But the latest opinion polling suggests it is a task he hasn’t quite mastered. Despite a majority at Holyrood With approval ratings showing he remains less popular than his predecessor, worryingly for the SNP just over half of Scots fear the country is heading in the wrong direction.

And nowhere more important will that be than Dundee – an SNP stronghold – where both the first minister and his deputy, Shona Robison, live with their families.

Opposition politicians suggest the city has seen little benefit to hosting the top of government.

Dundee-based Labour MSP Michael Marra told me: “There is little sign that they understand Dundee’s challenges or our opportunities.

“They have not defended our budgets with the deputy first minister decimating council services, slashing budgets for our colleges and universities and leaving NHS Tayside looking for tens of millions of pounds of cuts at a time of growing need.

“There is also a core issue of competence. When Shona Robison was health secretary our local NHS collapsed into financial chaos.

“When Joe Fitzpatrick was drugs minister overdose death figures continued to soar and the government conceded they had taken their eye off the ball.”

These issues of competence, beyond the political rammies about fraud probes and hidden Whatsapp messages, are what voters will have in mind as they head to polls.

Voters will expect politicians with answers

And while they may forgive the government for not solving these complicated problems immediately, they will be looking to see who has answers.

Increasingly, if polling is to be believed, it seems they are less and less convinced it is the SNP or the Conservatives.

But Mr Yousaf will find comfort that the same polls suggest that Scots are still not convinced they can place their hopes for the future in Labour, especially in areas like Dundee where they enjoy such huge majorities.

Ipsos Mori polling released this week suggests that while Labour have a better overall ‘net’ rating among the public than the nationalists, more of the public are neutral towards Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar’s party than is the case for the SNP or Conservatives.

If Scottish Labour politicians want to do more than rely on winning seats because SNP voters choose not to turn up to vote, they will have to generate much more enthusiasm among the public for their ideas than they have done so far.

If they can’t do this, Scotland may deliver a set of election results with no clear winner.

Despite that, Humza Yousaf will be all too aware that despite surviving a brutal 12 months, this is his election to lose.

A punishing result, anything fewer than 29 seats, will destroy his credibility as first minister.