The Scottish Tories are desperate to claim two major scalps in John Swinney’s Perthshire backyard at the election.
Even though a Labour resurgence looks guaranteed across the UK, the region remains a straight fight between the nationalists and Conservatives.
Can Douglas Ross deal the SNP leader a symbolic blow when voters go to the polls, or will Mr Swinney’s party cling on?
‘A lot of life left in this old dog yet’
Pete Wishart, the SNP’s longest-serving MP, first elected to Westminster in 2001, acknowledges he has a “tough fight” on his hands in Perth and Kinross-shire as support for the nationalists is strained across Scotland.
The SNP veteran held onto his former constituency, replaced in boundary changes, by a mere 21 votes in 2017.
Mr Ross launched the Scottish Tory election campaign in Perth on May 28, marking the seat as a prime target for his party.
Mr Wishart hopes can get a boost from close friend and FM Mr Swinney, telling us: “There’s no doubt that John is very highly regarded across Perth and Kinross, because people see him first-hand.
“He’s out campaigning all the time. They know how effective he is as their local MSP.”
The Perthshire veteran is confident anger against the UK Government will see him through, even though the Tories have a strong presence in the region.
He said: “There’s a lot of life left in this old dog yet. I’ve got unfinished business when it comes to getting my country independence.”
Mr Wishart is up against former Tory MP Luke Graham, who represented Ochil and South Perthshire until his defeat in 2019.
Mr Graham thinks the new constituency boundaries, which include areas such as Crieff, can give him the edge on election day.
He says: “People have seen Pete’s record over the past 20 years. It’s been about nationalism.
“The SNP hasn’t delivered for the area. They could’ve made Perth sing, and instead they’ve focused on independence.”
Mr Wishart could get a boost if Reform UK, now led by Nigel Farage, pull votes away from the Tories.
But Mr Graham says Farage’s party has “a limited pull” in Scotland.
‘Mountain to climb’ in Angus and Perthshire Glens
Tory MSP Stephen Kerr wants to make the switch back to Westminster when he takes on the SNP’s Dave Doogan in Angus and Perthshire Glens.
The Central Scotland MSP, who grew up in Forfar, admits his party has a “mountain to climb” in a new constituency that could prove unpredictable.
But he said: “I’m quietly optimistic. We are climbing the mountain.”
Mr Kerr acknowledges Mr Swinney’s personal popularity in Perthshire areas covered by the seat, but does not think it will prove decisive on election night.
He said: “On a personal level, people like him. He’s well-regarded for work he’s done in the constituency.
“However, people do separate that from his politics. The SNP is in trouble in John Swinney’s own backyard.”
He admits a Conservative victory is a “long-shot” at this point, claiming his party are now the “underdogs”.
But he still believes the Tories can win as many as 10 seats in Scotland.
Like Luke Graham, Mr Kerr is unconcerned about the possibility of Reform spoiling his chances.
“I think Reform is a very English thing,” he told us.
His opponent, Mr Doogan, has represented Angus in Westminster since 2019.
The newly-drawn constituency boundaries are significantly changed from his old seat, but Mr Doogan is a former Perth and Kinross SNP group leader.
He said: “There’s not an area of Perthshire that I’m not familiar with.
“There’s nobody on the ballot paper that knows this constituency better than I do. We’re leaving no corner of the constituency untouched.”
Mr Doogan also thinks First Minister Mr Swinney’s profile in Perthshire is a huge help.
“When you’re campaigning alongside John Swinney, you have one of the most deeply respected politicians anywhere in the UK,” he said.
What do the experts think?
The two seats covering Perthshire would likely be tight contests no matter what – but the new seat boundaries added extra unpredictability.
Polling expert Allan Faulds, who runs Ballot Box Scotland, says Perth and Kinross-shire is more likely to go Tory despite Mr Wishart’s longevity.
He told us: “The Kinross-shire and southern Perthshire area is much more favourable for the Conservatives.”
But he says areas in north Perthshire, now grouped in with Angus, were “slightly stronger” in support for the SNP.
Perhaps worryingly for the Tories, Mr Faulds warned Labour and Lib Dem supporters may not vote tactically to keep out the nationalists.
He said: “Conservative voters are really happy to transfer to the Lib Dems and Labour, but the return is much weaker.
“A lot of Labour voters, for example, will prefer the SNP to the Conservatives.”
Apathy could end up playing a key role, according to Mr Faulds.
He added: “It’s almost going to come down to who voters are least scunnered with locally.”
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In a previous version of this story, we stated that Dave Doogan had lead Perth and Kinross Council before he became MP for Angus.
He did, in fact, serve as leader of the opposition group on the local authority at the time. We are happy to clarify.
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