Voters in Dundee may be set to send Labour and SNP MPs to Westminster, according to a new poll.
The nationalists have drawn level with Sir Keir Starmer’s party in Scotland according to the latest Scottish voting intention study from Savanta.
If replicated at the ballot on July 4, it would result a narrow Labour victory against the SNP’s Chris Law in Dundee Central.
The SNP’s Stephen Gethins would be returned in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
It is the second poll to predict a Labour recovery in the independence voting “Yes city”, with previous predictions of a knife-edge result.
Political forecasting outfit Electoral Calculus now says there is a 56% of such a result in the former Dundee West constituency.
It would be a remarkable recovery for Labour, overturning a notional SNP majority of over 15,000 based on the new boundaries.
A senior party source in the city told The Courier: “This would be a fantastic result for Scottish Labour, the momentum is with us.
“If people want change in Dundee and across the UK, they will have to vote for it on July 4.”
Former Dundee East MP Stewart Hosie, who is the SNP campaign chief, previously said he hoped to the city would “keep faith” with his party.
He said: “My message to people in Dundee would be keep the faith. Looking at the alternatives, Labour and Tory threatening to privatise the NHS, the pitch we’re making is a strong one for Dundee and Scotland.”
SNP draws level with Labour
Despite John Swinney drawing level with Keir Starmer in Scotland as a whole, analysis from polling expert Professor John Curtice indicates Labour would still be on course for 28 Scottish MPs from their current two, while the SNP would drop to 18 seats.
The Liberal Democrats would increase to five MPs, while the Conservatives would be left with six MPs.
The Savanta poll, conducted this week alongside the Scotsman, also suggests the SNP is narrowly ahead of Labour in Holyrood Constituency voting intention, while the Conservatives drop to 14%.
In the Holyrood list vote, the SNP has recorded 31% of the vote, with Labour on 29%. The Scottish Greens have dropped to 9% and the Conservatives have fared better on 17%.
If these results were reflected at election time, according to Professor Curtice’s analysis, the SNP would remain the largest party in Holyrood, but with a reduced 46 MSPs.
The Labour Party would be a close second with 38 MSPs, and the Conservatives reduced to 23 MSPs.
Labour vote in Scotland ‘more efficient’
The mood among voters will be keenly watched by all parties ahead of the Scottish Parliament election scheduled for 2026.
Emma Levin, associate director at Savanta said: “Our latest Scottish voting intention suggests that the gap between Labour and the SNP is closing in Scotland, although this would still mean Labour picking up 28 Scottish MPs and the SNP dropping to 18.
“Labour’s vote in Scotland simply looks more efficient, as much of it is concentrated around the central belt, where there are many potential seats for them to pick up.
“For the SNP, this election is about saving face after a challenging couple of years – if they achieve these results, they’ll likely think they’ve done a pretty decent job of holding on.”
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