North East Fife could be one of the most hotly contested contests in Scotland as Liberal Democrat incumbent Wendy Chamberlain attempts to prevent an SNP upset.
And it’s a fight retired para-triathlete and SNP hopeful Stefan Hoggan-Radu is determined to give his all to, as voters prepare to head to the polls on Thursday.
Represented by Menzies Campbell since 1988, North East Fife was a Liberal heartland until 2015 when the SNP’s Stephen Gethins secured a 20-point swing and won the seat.
He was returned to Westminster in 2017 with a majority of just two votes.
It wasn’t to last. Even as the SNP re-gained seats in the 2019 election, Mr Gethins lost out to Liberal Democrat challenger Wendy Chamberlain.
North East Fife boundary change
However, for the 2024 ballot the constituency’s boundaries have been redrawn, and the SNP believe the alterations could work in their favour.
The seat now encompasses communities including Kennoway, Windygates and Levenmouth, previously part of the Glenrothes constituency.
All are areas where the SNP is known to have enjoyed strong levels of support in previous votes, including the most recent local authority election.
The subtle confidence is not misplaced.
Estimates suggest that if the new boundaries had been in place in 2019, Mr Gethins – who is standing in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry in the 2024 election – would have held onto his Westminster seat.
Ms Chamberlain knows the history – and she is confident the Lib Dems demonstrated a local record on “getting things done”.
Mr Hoggan-Radu, while taking nothing for granted, said the changes have made it an interesting competition.
Speaking as he prepares the final leg of his campaign, he told The Courier: “A snap election has its challenges but it has been really positive.
“Leven, Kennoway and Windygates are all very strong areas for us, and traditionally the unionist vote there is Labour, as opposed to Liberal Democrat. So it will be interesting.”
Mr Hoggan-Radu admitted his chance of success could come down to the extent of any tactical voting by anti-independence voters who previously voted Labour while part of the Glenrothes constituency.
It’s a reality incumbent MP Ms Chamberlain, the Liberal Democrat candidate, is also aware of as she adapts her campaign.
“There’s no doubt there is a strong liberal tradition in North East Fife. Since I was elected in 2019, Willie Rennie doubled his majority in what is the core part of the seat.
“That strong local representation and that team approach has been recognised by people as a good thing.”
Ms Chamberlain has also led an active campaign, door knocking around the constituency most weekends and speaking to thousands of voters.
‘Labour can’t win here’
In a message to Labour voters, she said: “Labour got the lowest vote share in Scotland in North East Fife in 2019, 3.7% of the vote, they know Labour can’t win here.
“We’ve demonstrated our local record on getting things done, it means they feel comfortable they can lend us their support.”
The constituency has also had a significant Conservative vote in the past, and Ms Chamberlain is hoping to benefit as pollsters predict a collapse in support for Rishi Sunak’s party.
But Mr Hoggan-Radu says he believes the Liberal Democrats have “lost their way” since 2019.
With the SNP the only party campaigning on a pledge to re-join the EU, he hopes to appeal to pro-European who may be disaffected by the Liberal Democrats.
“The SNP have a plan, and we want to re-join the European Union so we can live, laugh, love across the community,” he added.
As the campaign heads into its final day, both candidates say they will be fighting for every last vote.
Others candidates standing for election in North East Fife are Bill Bowman (Conservative), Jennifer Gallagher (Labour), Morven Ovenstone-Jones (Scottish Greens) and Matthew Wren (Reform UK).
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