Voters will still struggle to swing behind a revamped Tory party in time for the 2026 Holyrood election, according to a Dundee University expert in political marketing.
At least that is the case unless the next leader happens to be extremely visionary, charismatic, or skilled like the Tony Blair of the 1990s.
Professor Jennifer Lees-Marshment spoke to The Courier about the task ahead for the troubled Scottish Tories ahead of Murdo Fraser’s formal campaign launch in the leadership contest today.
Mr Fraser, making his pitch in Perth, has long argued for a fresh start, and is pushing a 12-point plan to “reform and renew” his party today.
But does he have time on his side?
Tories secured just 12.4% of votes in the general election and boasts fewer members than the Scottish Greens.
Several insiders called for the creation of a new party – a position Mr Fraser pushed in his 2011 leadership attempt, which he lost to Ruth Davidson.
Tory re-brand fraught with challenges
Prof Lees-Marshment said any attempt to establish a new identity in time for the 2026 election would be difficult.
The party would need to see its weaknesses, reconnect with voters, create new policies and explain how the party has changed.
“All of that typically takes two years at least, and that’s without the impact that the UK-wide Conservatives will have on brand perceptions,” she said.
‘It would take a visionary, charismatic leader’
“It would take a very visionary, charismatic leader to do it more quickly. It’s not an easy task,” she added.
Tony Blair in the UK, and Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand, managed it.
“Kamala Harris may be doing the same in the US, but it is rare,” she added.
“The Scottish Conservatives are between a rock and a hard place.
“Not enough time to do a proper listening exercise and re-branding and too much time to do a high-speed version.
“This is why Keir Starmer was talking of his ‘changed Labour Party’ right up until election day to try to drive home the idea he had changed the party.”
Tories need luck of Labour in 1997
She continued: “In 1997 Tony Blair talked of New Labour and changed the party symbol to a red rose. Tightly controlled communication and behaviour is also fundamental.
“And while Mr Blair succeeded in getting the public behind him, he only did so by very careful centrist policy design.”
But the jury is still out of Sir Keir, she added.
“In Scotland, voters would likely be just as questioning as to how ‘new conservatives’ or ‘changed conservatives’ or ‘reformed conservatives’ or whatever term they adopt would make any different to their lives.”
‘Victims of our own success’
Mr Fraser noted the need for a new message as he prepares to launch his campaign today.
“Victims of our own success in beating independence, we have lost our strongest political argument,” he will say in Perth.
“We have no choice now but to talk about issues other than the constitution, with a clear offer to the people of Scotland in terms of the economy and tax, on jobs, on transport, on the NHS, on education, on justice and the environment.”
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