Labour thumping victory over the SNP in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West overnight saw Sir Keir Starmer’s party gain a share of the vote which could translate into 40 seats in Scotland alone.
The swing, if replicated at a general election, would return Labour as the biggest party in Scotland.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said it could put the party on course to form the next UK Government.
Labour’s Michael Shanks secured 17,845 votes, well ahead of the 8,399 votes returned for his SNP rival Katy Loudon. After securing more than 58% of the votes cast, Mr Shanks now has a majority of 9,446.
Sir Keir said: “This is a seismic result. People in Rutherglen and Hamilton West have sent a clear message – it is time for change. And it is clear they believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it.”
Polling expert describes ‘serious challenge’
Sir John said: “This result very firmly confirms the direction of travel indicated by the polls and that Labour do pose a serious challenge to the SNP’s continued dominance at Westminster.
“That potentially has implications for the overall outcome in the general election because, if that were to happen, they would find it easier to get an overall majority.
“But also the kinds of increases that Labour have registered in their vote in this by-election, what they achieved in Selby, this is the kind of results that you see in advance of general elections when parties are on course to win.”
Sir John said the swing of around 20% was a “remarkably good night” for Labour.
If this result were to be replicated around Scotland, Labour would “quite clearly” become the dominant party north of the border again, he said.
‘Significant gains’
The result will pile more pressure on SNP leader and First Minister Humza Yousaf – who has seen his party’s fortunes decline in the polls in the wake of the ongoing police investigation into SNP finances.
The by-election was called after a recall petition against Margaret Ferrier, who had won the seat for the SNP in 2019 with a majority of 5,230.
Ms Ferrier had the SNP whip removed after breaching Covid rules in 2020, and after remaining as an independent MP was suspended from the House of Commons, resulting in the recall petition.
The Scottish Conservatives came in a distant third place, and lost their deposit. Thomas Kerr polled 1,192, ahead of Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate Gloria Adebo and Scottish Green Party candidate Cameron Eadie, who secured 895 and 601 votes respectively.
‘Difficult circumstances’
A total of 30,531 votes were cast in the by-election, with turnout standing at 37.2% – well below the 66.5% turnout in the last general election.
Mr Yousaf, who made frequent visits to the constituency during the election campaign, stressed his party was facing “some very difficult circumstances”.
“We lost this seat in 2017, and like 2019 we can win this seat back,” he claimed.
“We will reflect on what we have to do to regain the trust of the people of Rutherglen & Hamilton West.”
SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said his party cannot carry on with “business as usual” in light of its defeat.
He told BBC Breakfast: “We have lost by a significant margin, we know that our vote has not turned out and we know that we need to remotivate people to vote for the Scottish National Party.”
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