Theresa May’s “zero plans” for Brexit will drive Scotland towards a second independence referendum, says a leading economist.
Danny Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England’s influential Monetary Policy Committee, says Scots’ pro-immigration tendencies are also key in building support for indyref2.
The part-time professor at Stirling University told the Herald: “Obviously, I think the issue is that Scotland voted to Remain [in the European Union].
“It has a declining population. It wants to be part of Europe, and likes immigration, and would presumably like a say in what is going on.
“The economics, in some way, will drive the move to referendum.”
He said the timing of indyref2 is “up in the air”, but added: “Prospects are higher of a referendum mostly because the May Government apparently has zero plans and no exit strategy.
“They are not going to be able to negotiate access to the single market without free movement [of people] and they can’t negotiate any trade deals, so they are stumped.”
Prof Blanchflower, who is based in the US as Bruce V Rauner professor of economics at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire, said the UK Government’s lack of planning for leaving the EU is “astonishing”.
Scotland voted to Remain in the EU in June’s referendum, but faces being pulled out on the back of votes elsewhere in the UK – a scenario the SNP manifesto said would give the Scottish Parliament the right to hold a second independence plebiscite.
