Nicola Sturgeon faces a chaotic climbdown over legal threats aimed at people who failed to return their census forms after it emerged just two people were prosecuted last time.
The “official” deadline for responses closed on Tuesday but households have until June 12 to complete the form and avoid a possible £1,000 fine.
The SNP Government was accused of presiding over “another humiliation” as response rates are expected to fall well below what was achieved in England and Wales.
It is understood more than 13% of Scots households were yet to complete the census as of Tuesday morning, despite the cut-off date already being extended.
Experts warn a census botched on that scale would not provide “credible” data to plan policies so could jeopardise public services for the next decade.
Officials unable to provide basic details
We asked National Records of Scotland, the public body behind the census, to provide accurate figures on its progress on multiple occasions over a number of days.
Officials declined to give a national figure after the extended deadline passed.
They also refused to provide any breakdown of the figures by council area just one week after presenting the figures in a similar way.
They would only say “nearly” 2.3 million households had sent their returns in – declining to be precise or say what the full total would be.
We also asked for details about the 2011 census to compare results and convictions for failure to return forms.
In 2011, 94% of the population returned the census. Some 6% of Scots – roughly 318,000 people – did not.
We were told around 1,800 cases were put forward for non-compliance in 2011. That action prompted another 900 questionnaires to be returned.
After Crown Office advice, five cases were reported to the procurator fiscal and just two cases resulted in prosecution. The results of the prosecutions was not confirmed.
SNP ‘found wanting’ on planning
Tory MSP Donald Cameron said: “It’s clear that census participation isn’t driven by the threat of prosecution.
“A successful census operates on a good initial public awareness campaign that captures the public’s attention, rather than fear or coercion.
“That’s where the SNP have been found wanting – by insisting on going it alone, rather than running Scotland’s census in sync with the rest of the UK they squandered that UK-wide publicity drive.”
This census was due to take place in 2021 but was delayed because of the pandemic.
It went ahead in England and Wales, with 97% of people filling in their forms.
Mr Cameron said the SNP was warned against running a census out of step with the rest of the UK.
“But, as usual, they had to be different and do their own thing – squandering the benefits of the UK-wide publicity drive in the process,” he added.
‘Another humiliation’ over deadline
Officials quietly updated the census website on Wednesday.
It previously said every household “must complete the census by the end of May” but now reads: “You can still avoid a possible fine – complete by June 12.”
The new cut-off is not an official extension but Mr Cameron described the “manoeuvre” as “another humiliation”.
He said: “The census completion rate is so low that despite one embarrassing deadline extension already, the data obtained still risks being insufficient and not fit for purpose.
“Census 2022 is already well over budget and this latest move – which they haven’t even had the decency to formally announce – will only add to the bill that taxpayers will have to foot.
“We urgently need an explanation from this incompetent, wasteful SNP Government on what is actually going on with this farce.”
‘High quality census’
A National Records of Scotland spokeswoman said a provisional national return rate will come out shortly, followed by the regional breakdown later.
She said: “The census has achieved a high response and NRS is confident in the production of high quality census outputs.
“We would like to thank the nearly 2.3 million households across Scotland who have completed their census and the many organisations who have supported us.
“The census is an enormous undertaking and we have had staff, stakeholders and partner organisations working hard across Scotland to maximise the return rate.
“We will issue a provisional return rate for this phase of the census later this week.
“Our focus will now move to the next phase of the census, including the census coverage survey and there will be updates on that activity in due course.”