After weeks of campaigning, we are about to find out who is the next leader of the SNP.
Voting will officially close at noon today and the winner will be announced at 2pm at Murrayfield Stadium in Edinburgh.
It has been a rocky ride for the party ever since Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation as first minister.
Both the SNP’s communications chief, Dundonian Murray Foote, and its chief executive Peter Murrell resigned over a party membership row.
All three candidates for the top job have caused internal party division for trashing the SNP’s record in government and for speaking out against SNP policies.
Here’s a reminder of the leadership campaign, the three candidates in line to be first minister and what is likely to happen next.
Humza Yousaf
Dundee-based Humza Yousaf, 37, is the bookies’ favourite to win.
He has been dubbed the “continuity candidate” and has the majority of SNP MSPs and MPs backing him – including Deputy First Minister John Swinney.
He is currently health secretary and in recent months has faced criticism from opposition benches and multiple calls to resign over his handling of the NHS crisis.
Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie described Mr Yousaf as the “worst health secretary on record”.
Others said a win for him would account to him being allowed to fail upwards.
Even his rivals for the top job criticised his performance in government.
However, he has a lot of support within Holyrood, so it is likely some senior ministers will stay in his government team if he wins.
Mr Yousaf has also said he wants to keep the Bute House Agreement, which brought the Scottish Greens into government for the first time.
If he wins, he will become the first person from an ethnic minority background to be first minister.
LISTEN: Humza Yousaf on family, racism and the NHS
Kate Forbes
Highlander Kate Forbes, 32, is the finance secretary but has been on maternity leave since summer 2022.
To begin with she was the favourite.
But in the first week of campaigning she lost a lot of support after she said she would not have voted for equal marriage and doesn’t support the SNP’s gender reforms.
A win for Ms Forbes could potentially also damage the SNP-Green deal.
The Greens said they would be left in a “difficult position” if Ms Forbes wins as she has spoken out against some key Green policies.
In turn, Ms Forbes said she is prepared to lead a minority government without the Greens.
LISTEN: Kate Forbes on faith and tough decisions
Ash Regan
Ash Regan, 49, is unlikely to win.
She was previously community safety minister, but stood down so she could vote against the SNP’s controversial gender reform bill.
During the campaign she highlighted government failings such as the delayed dualling of the A9 between Perth and Inverness.
Depending on who becomes first minister, Ms Regan may be offered a place back in government – this is more likely to happen if Ms Forbes wins, as the pair have previously spoken about being good friends.
LISTEN: Ash Regan on independence
How does the winner become first minister?
There is no rule that says the leader of the biggest party automatically gets to be first minister.
It is effectively a done deal, but the new SNP leader will need to wait until Tuesday to be officially voted in by MSPs as first minister.
Another party leader may very well throw their hat in the ring and run against the new SNP leader.
That’s what happened in 2014 when Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson ran against Nicola Sturgeon.
The new first minister will officially be sworn in the following day at the Court of Session in Edinburgh.
All change at the top?
The first big job of the new first minister will be to form a cabinet – the top team in government around the leader.
We know Ms Sturgeon and Deputy First Minister John Swinney will not be in the next cabinet, regardless of who gets the top job.
Former SNP media chief Fergus Mutch has warned whoever wins will need to “swallow their pride” and form a government with each other to heal wounds.
He said the winner between Mr Yousaf and Ms Forbes will need to give the other a senior position within the cabinet.
Mr Yousaf has not ruled out giving Ms Forbes such a job.
Ms Forbes on the other hand has vowed to refresh the cabinet if she becomes first minister, and will choose ministers with “lived experience” of the sectors they would represent.
Time has already been set aside in the parliamentary diary for the appointment of new ministers.
The next big task will be their first first minister’s questions on Thursday, March 30.
If Mr Yousaf wins, he is likely to be attacked on his record when it comes to the NHS – if Ms Forbes wins, she will need to decide whether or not to return from maternity leave to do this.
How to follow the result and next steps
The Courier’s politics team will cover events from Edinburgh over the next few days.
Keep up-to-date with what is happening on The Courier politics homepage.
There will also be a special episode of The Stooshie politics podcast later today.
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