Humza Yousaf’s first big test at the ballot box in charge of the SNP will come when voters across Scotland go to the polls at the next Westminster election.
His party’s polling numbers have been less than impressive as of late and threats of a Labour resurgence north of the border mean key seats may be at risk.
Hints that the Scottish Conservatives will encourage supporters to vote tactically against the SNP could put the nationalists under more pressure – but how worried should they be?
What are the Tories saying?
A Scottish Tory source told The Times they want the party faithful to “vote smart” at the next UK election by backing the strongest anti-independence candidates in each seat no matter what.
That would mean some loyal Conservative backers lending their vote to Labour, who will be fighting to oust Rishi Sunak from 10 Downing Street.
The source said Mr Yousaf’s ascension to power meant there was a real chance to “end nationalist dominance” at Westminster, even if that requires “putting normal party politics to one side”.
In many Tayside and Fife seats, Douglas Ross’ Conservatives are a distant third and would have no prospect of ousting SNP MPs.
His party’s polling has significantly dropped over the past year in the wake of Boris Johnson’s partygate scandal and the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss.
Tory candidates in areas where they are best primed to take on the SNP would be hoping Labour and Lib Dem supporters back them in return.
A party spokesperson said: “We will always urge voters to back the Scottish Conservatives in each and every election.
“However, the electorate is sophisticated and aware of the dynamics in individual constituencies.”
Labour said the Scottish Tories had “accepted that they have lost the next general election”.
Meanwhile, Dundee-born SNP Westminster chief Stephen Flynn said: “It will surprise no one to see the dreadful better together band announcing their reunion.”
How do the polls look?
Support for the SNP slumped during the party’s leadership election and that trend has continued since Mr Yousaf was victorious.
A Savanta survey released on March 31 found just 39% of voters north of the border planned to back the nationalists.
🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for @TheScotsman
First Scottish VI since Yousaf elected leader
🎗️SNP 39% (-3)
🌹LAB 33% (+1)
🌳CON 19% (+2)
🔶LD 6% (=)
⬜️Other 4% (+1)1,009 Scottish adults, 28-31 March
(change from 15-17 Feb) pic.twitter.com/ZSFfXq2HTX
— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) March 31, 2023
By contrast, Labour has been on the rise. In the Savanta poll, 33% of the electorate planned to back Anas Sarwar’s party.
If that were to be replicated at the next Westminster election, Labour would be a sure bet to take some seats from the SNP.
But where exactly would Mr Yousaf’s party be under threat, and would tactical support from the Tories be a crucial factor in swinging seats?
How would this play out in Tayside and Fife?
Labour will be treating Fife as one of their key battlegrounds as they try to claw back support from the SNP north of the border.
The party narrowly lost out on victory in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath in 2019 despite a disastrous election, and local MP Neale Hanvey has since switched to the Alba Party.
Dunfermline and West Fife may prove a tougher nut to crack, since SNP MP Douglas Chapman won by 20% at the last vote.
However, just over a fifth of the local electorate backed the Conservatives last time and tactical voting would help out Labour.
But elections expert Allan Faulds, who runs Ballot Box Scotland, is uncertain unionist parties working together would have too much of an impact.
He told The Courier: “One of the things we saw by 2019 was a lot of constituencies have already self-sorted.
“People have already done this tactical voting, there’s probably not that much more ground left to make up.
“People who are with the Conservatives in bits of Fife, for example, are probably just going to vote Conservative no matter what.”
On Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Mr Faulds said: “With polling where it is just now, I don’t think that seat needs tactical voting to go Labour.”
Mr Faulds also said he doubts too many Labour supporters would return the favour by tactically backing Tory candidates.
That would be bad news for the Conservatives in Perthshire, where they are the main challengers to the nationalists in both seats.