It’s the highly anticipated event billed as the chance to thrash out a path to Scottish independence but before a word has even been spoken, insiders fear the SNP’s special conference will become a “talking shop” overshadowed by Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest.
Former health secretary Alex Neil warned the situation surrounding the former first minister and her husband Peter Murrell will put a “dampener” on proceedings as delegates come together for crunch talks.
Meanwhile, one current SNP MP said: “I think only two things will come out of the conference: hee and haw.”
Bad timing for conference
The special event, held in Dundee on June 24, has been called for members to forge a consensus ahead of the party’s full conference in October.
But the timing could hardly be worse. The meeting comes less than a fortnight after Ms Sturgeon was questioned for hours in police custody before later being released without charge.
Leader Humza Yousaf has heard calls to have his predecessor suspended, and there have been reports of him telling MSPs to back Ms Sturgeon or leave the party.
Mr Neil said one item on the agenda should be building a Yes alliance of organisations and parties with campaigners ready to chap on doors.
But he raised concerns over how useful the talks will actually be.
“Is there anything concrete going to come out of it?” Mr Neil asked.
“To me it looks a bit like a talking shop.
“Maybe that’s what necessary, to let people put their views without being too restricted.
“But at the end of the day, what matters is when we reach decisions and they’re not going to come until the party conference in October.”
The former health chief was critical of the role played by Ms Sturgeon in the efforts to secure Scottish independence.
He said she “quite frankly didn’t move the dial on independence in nine years as first minister” and could now become a distraction.
Mr Neil said: “With everything going on and the big question mark over where the police investigation is going to end up, clearly that’s a bit of a dampener.
“But the good thing is that all the opinion polls that have come out show support for independence is actually holding up, even though support for the SNP has dipped.
“The key thing is that people are able to differentiate between parties and causes.”
Yousaf branded ‘weak’ by own MP
One current SNP MP described the decision not to suspend Ms Sturgeon as a sign of “weakness” from the party.
He said it leaves Mr Yousaf as a “hell of a hostage to fortune”.
Ms Sturgeon became the third SNP figure to be arrested and interviewed by detectives as part of Operation Branchform.
It is looking into what happened to money raised by the party for a second independence referendum.
Like former chief executive Peter Murrell and former treasurer Colin Beattie, she was released without charge pending further investigation.
A former MSP said the situation is “hanging over everything”.
She said: “It was quite extraordinary what Humza Yousaf said, that people who don’t support Nicola Sturgeon should leave the party.
“For someone to be arrested and then for the first minister to come out and say we all have to support her, is just absolutely extraordinary.
“What land are they living in?
“It’s chummy, it’s him saying he’s going to stick by his friend.
“The whole party machine got behind him. He owes his position to that and as far as I can see, now it’s payback time.”
‘We need to be honest about mistakes’
The MSP said she fears the conference will be merely “performative” given the troubles faced by the leadership.
“I think some really serious thought needs to go into the next steps and that means taking a critical look at decisions that have been made in the past,” she said.
“We need to be honest about the mistakes, and one of the biggest of those was to go to the Supreme Court. That was a huge mistake.
“There needs to be some really serious conversations and I don’t think that’s happened so far.
“It should have happened after 2014. It was the arrogance of the party not to go back to the people who campaigned in 2014 to find the way forward.”
A ‘damp cloud’ over conference
Western Isles MP Angus Brendan MacNeil is calling for members to back a plan that could see the SNP frame elections as single-issue referendums.
He warned any strategy that relies on an electoral pact with Labour, if there is a hung parliament after the next general election, “could be blown to bits within about six hours of the polls closing”.
But Mr MacNeil said people are “right” to be concerned that nothing concrete will come from the conference.
He also warned it is a mistake not to place a barrier – what he termed as a “political cordon sanitaire” – between Ms Sturgeon and the rest of the SNP.
Mr MacNeil said: “Nobody knows what’s happening next.
“It’s certainly a damp cloud over the conference. That can’t be denied.”