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5 things to watch in Dundee, Stirling, Fife, Angus and Perth as election results roll in

Come 10pm, campaigning will be over and careers will be won and lost in the hours that follow.

The overall story of how each party performs in Scotland will be shaped in Tayside and Fife.
The overall story of how each party performs in Scotland will be shaped in Tayside and Fife.

Come 10pm, the weeks of campaigning will be over. You’ll have had to your say, and in the hours that follow careers will be won and lost.

Right here in the communities covered by The Courier, we’ll see some very important results for the national pictures.

In John Swinney’s Perthshire backyard and Dundee battlegrounds, we’ll find out how the SNP actually fare after a set of concerning polls for the nationalists.

In Angus, where the Scottish Conservatives hoped they could potentially make gains, will their candidate have something to smile about?

In Fife, will Labour make its much hope-for breakthrough, or will the SNP manage to cling on in a set of tight races?

And in Stirling, a the three-way contest will end in despair for all but one candidate.

We take a look at what to look out for as the results roll in.


1. Exit poll

Broadcast at 10pm, the exit poll gives us the first look at what might happen. Historically fairly accurate, it uses data gathered as voters leave the polling station to offer a prediction of how many seats each party will win.

It will be a UK projection though, and crucially, it won’t give much insight into Scotland beyond a total number of seats for the SNP.

If it suggests the nationalists are set to hold less than 20 seats, it’s likely to be a very good night for Scottish Labour.

2. Dundee – an SNP heartland?

The City of Discovery has been an SNP stronghold since long before Scotland turned yellow in 2015.

But pollsters have detected a shift. Some have suggested the party could lose Dundee Central and potentially even the “safe” seat of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.

A significant narrowing in the vote, even if the SNP candidates hold on, will worry the party’s high-command.

A Labour victory would be earth-shattering for John Swinney.

Keep a close eye on both the final result and the swing to Labour.

Don’t forget to watch the Alba vote in Dundee, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, too.

Alex Salmond’s party is standing two candidates and they’ll want to walk away with a respectable vote, certainly more than the 5% needed to hang onto their deposit.

3. The picture in Fife

Labour are very confident about their chances in the Kingdom and they could potentially walk away with three seats at the end of the night.

Of particular interest is Glenrothes and Mid Fife. Won with an SNP majority of over 11,000 in 2019, the polls suggest it could fall to Labour.

North East Fife is also set to be an interesting contest and it’s a rare Liberal Democrat-SNP battle.

The SNP want to take advantage of the new constituency boundaries and pull of an upset, while the Liberal Democrats have fought a tough campaign to hold on.

Also, keep an eye on how the Scottish Green candidates perform in Fife. None are likely to win, but their vote share will be interesting to keep an eye on ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections.

4. A 3-way race in Stirling and Strathallan

One of the few seats in Scotland represented by the SNP, Conservatives and Labour at one time or another.

Stirling is a bit of a bellwether seat. Since 2015, it has tended to back the SNP if it has a good night nationally or vote elsewhere if the mood is against the nationalists.

Keep an eye on Labour’s vote. The party experienced a terrible result in 2019, less than 10% of the vote, and it will want to see some signs of a recovery.

5. All eyes on Perthshire

Even those like the first minister at the top of politics will often think about important calls in terms of how their own constituency will react.

The same is true of elections and John Swinney will be paying extra close attention to how Perth and Kinross-shire, and Angus and Perthshire Glens vote.

Both are predicted to stick with the SNP, but any significant swing to another party or change in voter behaviour will give him pause for thought.

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