In the space of just three years, Stephen Flynn went from being a newly elected MP to the SNP’s Westminster leader.
After a bruising election, some in the SNP have already called for First Minister John Swinney’s departure, citing Mr Flynn as a possible replacement.
Now SNP insiders, experts, and some old political rivals speak about whether the Dundee-born MP is a likely contender for the top job.
Would he want the role?
One word unites almost everyone who talks about Mr Flynn: ambitious.
He was seen as carrying out an effective coup to oust Ian Blackford as SNP Westminster leader and take over.
Almost nobody doubts he is keen to lead the party one day, which would involve switching from Westminster to Holyrood.
“He is clearly ambitious,” one SNP source says. “That’s a good thing. Everybody in politics should be ambitious.”
Several SNP insiders agreed, with one saying: “He’s too ambitious not to be wanting it.”
Mr Flynn first became an Aberdeen councillor in 2015 and was the SNP’s group leader less than a year later.
Political rivals got an early insight.
“Without a doubt, Mr Flynn has a driving ambition,” says Barney Crockett, a former Labour councillor. “That was clear from the start.”
“He seems pretty ruthless,” says North East Tory MSP Douglas Lumsden, who served on the council before entering Holyrood. “I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s plotting behind the scenes.”
‘Clear the decks’
But is John Swinney’s job actually at risk?
Former Dunfermline and West Fife MP Douglas Chapman said Mr Swinney should quit, saying it’s time to “clear the decks”.
Ex-SNP health chief Alex Neil, who ran against Mr Swinney to lead the party in 2000, says he was Nicola Sturgeon’s “chief cheerleader” and should go.
Both named Mr Flynn – along with Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes – as ideal replacements.
But others inside the party have cautioned against any immediate change.
One source said: “The general election came so early in John Swinney’s period as party leader. He is entirely deserving of a pass.”
Another told us: “Stephen’s still young. I think he’s very level-headed to know it’s a big job.”
Will he get into Holyrood?
Mr Flynn wouldn’t be the first SNP politician to switch Westminster for Holyrood. Health chief Neil Gray did the same in 2021.
As did Alex Salmond, who was elected leader of the nationalists for a second time in 2004 but only made the switch to Holyrood in 2007.
But it does present some challenges, especially given the nationalists could lose seats in 2026 – and there are lots of newly out-of-work former MPs eyeing Holyrood.
“He could lose an equivalent seat in Aberdeen. I think it’s now more difficult,” says James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh University.
He doubts Mr Flynn could take the SNP back to power after a defeat in 2026.
“I don’t think he’s a credible future leader,” he added. “I think they’ll be wanting deeper thinkers.”
What has Mr Flynn said about the job?
Mr Flynn hasn’t ruled out a move to Holyrood in the future.
The SNP Westminster chief regularly praised Humza Yousaf when he was party leader, and his relationship with Mr Swinney has been similar.
But in 2022 Mr Flynn denied he was attempting to get rid of Mr Blackford – weeks before he ended up replacing him anyway.
And he was forced to deny being the pivotal influence who pushed for the SNP’s Holyrood deal with the Greens to end, which cost Mr Yousaf his job.
A source close to Mr Flynn said: “He thinks John is the guy to unite the party. There’s no doubt about that.”
Conversation