A “dangerous” Donald Trump presidency could lead to the war in Ukraine spilling out into other European nations and force the UK to reconsider it’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU, Dundee-based experts have warned.
The controversial Republican candidate looks likely to go head-to-head with vice president Kamala Harris after Joe Biden pulled out of the race this week.
Academics say rhetoric around weakening support for Ukraine and other European nations must be a “wake-up call” for the whole continent.
It is a stark warning with particular importance for Scotland, as one of the most strategically significant locations anywhere in northern Europe.
It also comes just days after the head of the British Army said the UK must be ready to fight a war in just three years in what he described as an “increasingly volatile” world.
Dr Matthew Ward, an expert in American history at Dundee University, fears a Trump presidency could be “more than dangerous”.
He said: “I’m actually really worried about what could happen if Trump gets re-elected and if I was a betting man, I’d probably put my money on him winning right now.
“The thing I worry about most is that Trump has made it quite clear he thinks a lot of Europe is very reliant on America and NATO for defence, particularly Eastern European countries.
“He wants to pivot American foreign policy much more towards facing a threat from China, which is logical and you can justify, but it’s how he does that and what it means for Ukraine and stability in Europe.
“I worry about the impact it will have if Trump dramatically decreases American support for Ukraine and, more importantly, if he starts making pro-Putin statements.
“One of the very real threats is the feasibility of the conflict in Ukraine escalating and becoming much more widespread.”
Trump’s rhetoric could be most damaging
Dr Ward believes Trump will look to get out of the gates early with showy public pronouncements about the US no longer bankrolling Ukraine’s war effort.
It is Trump’s rhetoric rather than his actions he fears could be most damaging.
This could include seeking to absolve Russian president Vladimir Putin and shifting the blame to the Biden administration for “meddling” in international affairs.
It is expected Harris will broadly continue Biden’s strong support for Ukraine if she becomes the next US president.
Trump has vowed to end the war but concerns over his approach have grown since he picked JD Vance as his running mate.
Vance has repeatedly outlined his opposition to the US writing what he calls “blank cheques” to help Kyiv.
The concern over what a Trump presidency could mean has seen Prime Minister Keir Starmer seek closer military ties with France and Germany, including a new defence pact with the latter.
Many European nations consider the European Union and NATO as the two key pillars of their security.
UK ‘less safe’ after Brexit
SNP MP Stephen Gethins raised the issue with Starmer this week and warned the UK is now a member of only one of those pillars – a fact he says makes it “less safe”.
Mr Gethins, who is professor of international relations at St Andrews University, said the return of Trump and a more isolated US “makes the case for greater European unity almost unanswerable”.
He said: “I think what we’ve seen in the United States should be a wake-up call for people in Scotland, the rest of the UK and the whole of Europe.
“Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has meant European security is now a priority for political leaders in every capital city across Europe.
“That means conversations around hard security but also energy security and food and drink security.
“It means conversations around polarisation and disinformation – both of which have been weaponised by the Kremlin.
“If Donald Trump gets in, there will have to be moves towards more co-operation on these issues and defence across Europe.
“But even if he doesn’t win, the genie is out the bottle in terms of how reliable a partner the United States is – and maybe we in Europe need to take a look at how seriously we take our own security.
“In Scotland, this is particularly pertinent because it sits in a strategically important part of Europe so is an integral part of Europe’s defence infrastructure.”
Can Harris stop a Trump return?
It is not yet clear what kind of relationship Trump would seek to have with Keir Starmer but he is likely to maintain a close eye on his interests in Scotland.
Trump owns two golf resorts, in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire, and has at times had strained relationships with local residents and Scottish political leaders.
Harris has met with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy multiple times over the past few years and strongly supports the ongoing fight against Russia.
She reiterated her support at this year’s Munich security conference, saying America is committed to “defend the basic principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity and to stop an imperialist authoritarian from subjugating a free and democratic people”.
Experts believe the choice to select Harris as Biden’s replacement could re-energise sections of support that were not enthused by his campaign.
However, Dr Ward said there is no precedent in the modern era for a leading candidate being selected so late in the process.
A spate of opinion polls since Biden announced he would step down show Harris is closing the gap on Trump.
Surveys carried out in battleground states show Trump ahead mostly within error margins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, while one survey showed the two are tied in Wisconsin at 47%.
Similarly tight margins have been reported in national polling, with Trump ahead by one point among likely voters- a stark contrast with the six point lead he held over Biden at the beginning of July.
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