5 alarm bells for Labour in Dundee double defeat to SNP

Anas Sarwar got a taste of things to come in Dundee as his party lost out on a chance to land a blow on the SNP in two city by-elections.

Scottish Labour fell to the SNP in Strathmartine and in Lochee in two results announced overnight on Thursday.

The results, an undoubted boost for First Minister John Swinney, gave the SNP an even stronger majority on Dundee city council.

For Labour, it is a stinging loss after they had talked up their chances.

Here are five reasons Scottish Labour might start to panic.

1. Does Dundee just prefer the SNP?

Scotland’s Yes City has long backed the nationalists, even prior to Scottish Labour’s wipeout in 2015.

Once a Labour city, a determined campaign to grow support for both the SNP and independence has been under way since at least the late 1990s.

While the party’s share of the vote reduced dramatically at the general election, and Labour saw some green shoots of recovery, perhaps the city’s voters just prefer the SNP?

2. Winter fuel payment backlash

SNP campaigners told The Courier that anger over the new Labour government’s decision to restrict the winter fuel payment for pensioners was raised time and again by voters.

Hopes had been high inside Labour, but when the feedback started coming in, some insiders began talking down their chances of success.

Labour’s candidate in Strathmartine is also understood to have raised concerns about the impact the winter fuel payment changes were having on the campaign.

Sources said they were “hammered” by the change.

The UK Government is also retaining the two-child benefit cap, a controversial Conservative-era policy that experts say plays a significant role in child poverty levels.

Anas Sarwar will be aware how unpopular decisions by his colleagues in Westminster could scupper his dream of being the next first minister after 2026.

3. A return to austerity

“Read my lips: no austerity under Labour”. T

hat was Anas Sarwar’s message to Scots in the general election campaign.

But Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves immediately undermined that by saying cuts would be required to fill a £22 billion blackhole in the public coffers.

Dundee-based MSP Michael Marra and his Labour boss Anas Sarwar. Image: PA

This includes a review of whether £20 million in levelling up cash for the city that was promised by the previous government will actually be delivered.

Voters hate nothing more than what they perceive as a broken pledge.

4. Sir Keir’s freebies

Campaigners told The Courier that the backlash over freebies, gifts and donations received by the Labour leadership was also raised on the doorstep.

Labour promised to return government to public service.

The perception, fair or not, that politicians are using their office for personal enrichment, may have influenced how voters in Lochee and Strathmartine used their ballot.

5. Trust

Anas Sarwar admitted the new Labour government is experiencing teething problems.

His party promised changed and voters in Scotland seemed to tentatively endorse their plan.

Sir Keir Starmer and Anas Sarwar Scottish Labour Dundee — Securing the voters’ trust, and ensuring it’s not betrayed, will make or break Scottish Labour’s hopes of a return to power. Image: Shutterstock.

But public backlash over the winter fuel payment, the two-child benefit cap, public spending cuts and freebie gate may be seen as a betrayal of that trust.

Scottish Labour’s road to recovery in Scotland has been long and challenging. Securing and maintaining the trust of voters will be crucial.

On these early tests, the party has struggled.