Well, it seems it only takes one man’s private plane movements to change a narrative.
The Masters in 2022 was always going to be a tumultuous occasion. Except tumultuous in a bad way.
The Saudi golf revolution was/is still percolating. Phil Mickelson, a three-time Green Jacket winner, was surely poised to stir the boiling pot further by returning from self-imposed purdah.
Instead, Phil’s either been banned or gone into some cave somewhere and the SGL has barely been mentioned.
Instead, it’s full focus on a player who hasn’t played for 18 months and who was reportedly relieved this time last year to still be in possession of two legs.
As we opined earlier in the week, whatever he says, I don’t believe Tiger Woods has even a chance to win. The smart bet on him is the less-than-generous 6/5 odds to make the cut, and those are the same odds as Padraig Harrington doing the same thing.
Tiger was T38 in the last properly competitive tournament he played, the 2020 Covid Masters. He was in considerably better physical condition then. He’s won just one full-field event (the ZOZO Championship in Japan in 2019) since August 2013.
It’s fantastic, and slightly miraculous, that he’s back. But even if he was properly seasoned to competitive golf, the quality of this field would make it extraordinarily difficult to win for a 46-year-old with a chronic back condition.
There’s plenty of better candidates to put your money on. Here’s the leading ones.
Done it before, good chance to do it again…Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth
As we might have expected, DJ went a bit spacey after his record-shattering win in 2020.
It’s been his career MO – fantastic talent, but not always fully switched on. But the rain this week making it a little like it was that November he won and he has some decentish form coming in.
Spieth has as good a record as anyone around Augusta, but his biggest obstacle may be himself – he’s incredibly jittery and jumpy these days.
Dues paid, time to cash in? Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka
Cameron Smith has three top 10s in his last four Masters appearances.
Top shots from his impressive season thus far ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/BeJPs7KNrO
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 5, 2022
Take your first time Green Jacket wearer from these five. They’ve all been in the mix at some point, and smart counsel says that you have to be properly blooded at Augusta before you win.
Koepka should win here at some point, but despite his outrageous major record since 2016 – 13 top tens, four wins, worst T39 – he’s faltered at the finish in a few recently.
Of this quintet, I like Smith – a superior putter, winner at the season opener and the Players, and ready to step into the biggest spotlight.
Got to win it sometime, surely? Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele drains a long putt for eagle at the par-5 hole No. 15. #themasters pic.twitter.com/6uKxZYFPg5
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 10, 2021
I don’t have good vibes about Rory. For some strange reason, he just doesn’t score well enough on the par fives at Augusta – that’s really been his biggest failing here. You’ve got to be double figures under for the week on the long holes to have a chance.
Morikawa still seems to be figuring Augusta out, if his comments about adopting a draw and then ditching the idea this week are anything to go by. Don’t put it past him to do so.
Scheffler can ride the hot streak, but you figure it’ll end sometime. I like Schauffele – he probably should have got closer or even won last year, and he’s been on the cusp of majordom for some time.
Up and coming, but through to win? Will Zalatoris, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Joaquin Niemann, Robert MacIntyre
Brilliant to be back up the lane @TheMasters 💚
Thanks folks at The Oban Pipe Band 😍#MyHighlandCathedral pic.twitter.com/LXxaQiILwn
— Robert MacIntyre (@robert1lefty) April 4, 2022
Hovland has been spectacularly, consistently brilliant for a player with a glaring weakness in his game – “I suck at chipping”, in his own words. It’s surely a flaw that’s fatal to his chances at Augusta.
Zalatrois and MacIntyre had super debuts last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised with a little regression from both. The best of them this year might be Niemann, who is tempting at 50-1.
They’re offering what? Louis Oosthuizen, Shane Lowry
Most strokes gained approach per round at The Masters since 2015 (min. 10 rounds)
Jordan Spieth, 1.17
Louis Oosthuizen, 0.92
Corey Conners, 0.90
Hideki Matsuyama, 0.89
Paul Casey, 0.88— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) April 1, 2022
40-1, mostly, on Louis, the most consistent major championship golfer not called Koepka. You should definitely have a slice of that.
You can get 50-1 in some places on Shane. They’d put a statue of him in Grafton Street in Dublin if he won the Masters. They’d also probably rename the street. He’s certainly capable.
Outside fancies: Sungjae Im, Russell Henley, Matt Fitzpatrick
Korea’s Im played as well as Cam Smith in the Covid Masters but hasn’t quite kicked on. But you don’t think he didn’t notice who won last year.
Henley’s one of the better iron players, which is a key at the Masters. Fitzpatrick’s major record is fairly poor for a player of his calibre. He’s had just one top ten – at Augusta on his first pro appearance in 2016. He’s much better than that, and 2022 is the time to show it.
My five to watch are Dustin Johnson, Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen and Xander Schauffele. There is a sixth, and it’s Tiger. But just to watch, not to win.