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THE BREAKDOWN, STEVE SCOTT: Scotland’s last quarter slumps have been a feature of a disappointing 2022

Scotland players suffered another late-in-the-game slump against New Zealand.
Scotland players suffered another late-in-the-game slump against New Zealand.

The ‘80-minute performance’ is, at the same time, the primary target of every international rugby team, and also the most unattainable.

Such are the ebbs and flows – and physical demands – of the elite game, it’s utterly impossible to expect any team to maintain a complete level of performance for an entire game.

Even chronic mis-matches are rarely one-way traffic. I give in evidence, m’lud, the last time Scotland absolutely wiped out an opposing team – the 2021 Covid Six Nations obliteration of Italy.

Not even 52-10 was one way traffic

My own memory of this game is primarily the weather – it was 20 degrees warmer than the game against Wales that spring, when I’d seriously feared hypothermia. It was also the game where Scotland experimented with Stuart Hogg at stand-off (Finn Russell was on concussion protocol, not snubbed or in the huff).

The other memory is Huw Jones, Duhan van der Merwe and Ali Price running free with hapless Italians chasing them.

But what’s not recalled is that Italy dominated the first ten minutes of that match. The Scots were slow out of the blocks and Hoggy didn’t look terribly comfortable at 10. Italy scored first, from a driving lineout.

It was only after that it was one-way traffic – record breakingly so – and finished 52-10. Six days later Scotland won in Paris for the first time in 20 years.

In 2022, Scotland have yet to produce anything near an 80-minute performance. The best win of the year was the first, the win over England in the Calcutta Cup at Murrayfield.

And it’s also notable for being an exception – it’s feels like the only frontline game of the year they haven’t gone missing in the final 15-20 minutes.

In the England game, Finn Russell grabbed the game by the cojones and with superior game management and kicking, led the Scots to a comeback win.

A succession of leads surrendered

But in contrast, the Scots have surrendered leads in Cardiff, twice in Argentina, and twice this autumn at Murrayfield to Australia and New Zealand, all in the final quarter.

In the other games, they were blown out by France and Ireland, and inexplicably let Italy get much closer than they should have in Rome.

Sometimes it’s easy to see why this has happened – an untimely yellow card against Australia, the All Blacks’ experienced, outstanding bench last Saturday. I simply don’t know what happened in the third test in Argentina – I’m not sure Gregor Townsend and his coaches do, yet.

I’m inclined to think it’s a bench thing. New Zealand probably started a less than full-strength side last week, but were canny enough to have Codie Taylor, TJ Perenara and Reiko Ioane in reserve.

The previous week against Fiji it was Scotland’s bench – notably Rory Sutherland, Ewan Ashman and Ben White – who gave the team a lift. But they were not nearly as effective against New Zealand’s reserve cavalry.

Townsend has been in charge for longer than any Scotland head coach and has capped many, many more players than anyone of any era. But still the depth to add bite late in games seems to elude him.

And it’s ominous that the two big teams Scotland face in the Rugby World Cup pool next year, Ireland and South Africa, have almost unassailable depth in their squads. It’s not looking good.

The Pumas are not a great match up for Scotland

Whose idea was it to keep playing the Pumas in 2022? The team sides will meet for a fourth time on Saturday. We didn’t even play Australia this often when Matt Williams was coach.

I’m not even sure that they’re a decent match-up for Scotland.

The Scots have given up 38 penalties in three matches this autumn, and ‘led’ the Six Nations in the spring with a whopping 61 in five games. Emiliano Boffelli is maybe the best goalkicker in world rugby right now. You do the maths.

That said, Scotland did keep the pen count down a bit in the three tests in the summer. They still somehow lost the series despite dominating the first hour of the third test.

Certainly the Scots can ill-afford a third defeat to Argentina, and a third loss this autumn. There were certainly signs – at last – of some real attacking direction against New Zealand. See what happens when you pick the best players?

But Saturday really needs to be a properly coherent and decisive performance to sign off on what has, undeniably, been a really disappointing year. After 2021 we thought Scotland were on the cusp of something, but inconsistency has plagued the team the last 18 months.

You certainly can’t take anything for granted against Argentina, as their performances in the Rugby Championship and Twickenham have shown.

But anything less than a win, and the pressure on Townsend and the team doubles as they open the Six Nations in just 10 weeks’ time against England at Twickenham.

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