Scotland’s first loss of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations feels like another opportunity missed, but not quite as acute as the last one.
In the deepest of holes at 19-0 down after the first quarter of the game in Paris, it felt like this new Scottish bubble of optimism had been thoroughly burst. Self-inflicted errors and some misfortune helped France to the kind of lead World No 2 teams don’t surrender.
But with ten minutes remaining Scotland had hauled themselves back to four points behind and you definitely felt they’d left more chances on the pitch. France, thought to be suspect in terms of fitness, were wobbling.
Scotland failed to convert chances against New Zealand in the autumn. A glaring and rare opportunity to beat the All Blacks was lost, and the overriding feeling was frustration. But somehow, it doesn’t feel quite the same this time.
Resilience is ingrained in this team now
🗣️ "We'll regroup, see what we've got to do, see where we could have been better, and attack it from there."#AsOne pic.twitter.com/9VSZ7JNEuv
— Scottish Rugby (@Scotlandteam) February 26, 2023
In that All Black game, they lost two early tries and bounced back to lead at half-time. Against England, they were trailing late in the game but seized the last 10 minutes to win. Against Wales, they toiled until half-time but reset and pulled away in the second.
We’ve all seen Scotland teams of the past that have capitulated from situations like in the first 20 minutes in Paris. This team did not. At half-time, still 19-7 in arrears, they were talking about how they would win the game.
And there was a feeling they definitely could after controlling a full 50 minutes of the match. There were points where France might have buried them in that spell, but the defence was outstanding.
The resilience and belief in the team now seems particularly robust. Scotland are very rarely blown out of a game these days. Even when it happens like it did on Sunday, and the situation seems hopeless, they have a valuable and admirable capacity to somehow stay in the fight.
Better opposition always meant Scotland’s stats would even out
Scotland’s impressive stats of the first two games – indeed, including the Argentina game that ended the autumn – were probably unsustainable.
The rate of more than four points scored for every visit to the 22 and scoring so freely despite having a minority of territory and possession was never going to continue against France.
It’s really hard to be as clinical in international rugby as Scotland were in the first two weeks. The fact they did it reflected their confidence and skill, yes, but also the quality of the opposition they played.
The Scots felt they had four or five glaring chances on Sunday they didn’t convert. Three came in second quarter of the game. Another try in that spell could have changed the entire game.
But France defended stoutly and effectively throughout. Ireland will defend even more aggressively.
Richie Gray’s importance just took on a new level
Six Nations: 12 years on, Richie Gray returns to the Stade de France better than ever https://t.co/FwvDvywjvw pic.twitter.com/X8bJZbHJZv
— P&J Sport (@PandJSport) February 25, 2023
Maybe the key moment of the entire match was Fraser Brown overthrowing Jamie Ritchie at a halfway lineout with six minutes left, with the score at 25-21.
Grant Gilchrist had gone in the sixth minute to the red card, and Richie Gray had just been subbed after another heroic shift. France recovered the ball and set up siege in the Scottish 22, staying there for the rest of the game.
Scotland’s lineout on their own and opposition ball has been a huge strength in recent games. GIlchrist is the lineout captain, and caller. He’s going to be banned at least for Ireland, and that could be significant.
The last time Gilchrist missed a game against them, Ireland stole so much Scottish lineout ball it was a wonder they only won by a last minute penalty.
The elder Gray becomes an even more crucial figure – whoever he’s paired with – if the Scots are to turn over Ireland at long last.
Russell’s intercept his first crucial error for Scotland
The common and glib narrative for those who are immune to Finn Russell’s charms is that he loses you as many games as he wins you. As we’ve examined before in these pages, that certainly isn’t true for Scotland.
Sunday’s interception try for Tomas Ramos from a flat pass from Russell was certainly significant in the shakedown. But it was the first time a glaring Russell error for Scotland – in 67 caps – has directly resulted in an opposition try.
Just moments after that, unflappable, he ghosted through a gap that should have resulted a try for Duhan van der Merwe. There were times when he played too loosely, but he kept varying play well, kicked impeccably and scored a crucial try.
He’s not perfect. But this observer would still rather have him than any 10 currently playing international rugby.
The Irish game(s) are still the focus of 2023 for Scotland
The first of two huge home games to finish the championship. #AsOne pic.twitter.com/hbvo4RJ5My
— Scottish Rugby (@Scotlandteam) February 26, 2023
Scotland’s two meetings with Ireland (in two weeks and in the World Cup) were always the two most important games of 2023. That hasn’t changed.
The Irish have been Scotland – and Gregor Townsend’s – nemesis in recent times. The match at next week will be the first time they’ve been to Murrayfield with a full house since 2019.
It’s the biggest challenge yet for the players and for Townsend and his coaches. They’ve delivered on their promise to improve discipline so far this Six Nations. That is absolutely crucial against Ireland, who score so often from attacking set plays.
They also have to find a way to shake Ireland out of their relentlessly efficient drill play, force mistakes and/or penalties.
There has been signs this is happening more often even in Ireland’s three wins so far – they’ve been much looser than of late. Italy had them concerned on Saturday.
But they have absolutely no fear of Scotland – nor should they, given recent results. Creating a performance that can overcome Ireland’s self-assurance is paramount to the Scots’ entire year and future progress.
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