Dunfermline Athletic are safe from relegation and will play Championship football next season – as things stand.
However, with just one game remaining in a difficult season, the Pars’ safety is still dependent on the outcome of Hamilton Accies’ appeal against their SPFL censure.
The Lanarkshire outfit will take their fight to the Scottish FA at a hearing on Thursday in a bid to overturn their 15-point deduction.
It is understood the tribunal has the power to reach any decision based on the evidence it is presented with.
So, in theory, nothing is off the table if Hamilton are successful – or even partly so.
That leaves Dunfermline, who lie in seventh, as well as Queen’s Park, one place below, and Airdrie, in ninth, anxiously awaiting the SFA ruling.
Hamilton were sanctioned for four breaches of SPFL rules, with two of those charges carrying points deductions.
They were penalised three points for suffering a downgrading of their SFA licence level from the necessary bronze to entry level.
John Rankin’s side also lost 12 points due to alleged wage issues and a ‘failure to act with the utmost good faith’ in dealing with the SPFL around a transfer embargo and previous ‘remuneration and tax defaults’.
Courier Sport has taken a look at the permutations that could arise from the appeal and their consequences for the Pars.
Hamilton’s appeal fails
This is the most simple and clear-cut of all.
If Accies are unsuccessful with their legal challenge and their sanction of 15 points remains, they will suffer automatic relegation and Airdrie will enter the play-off.
That will ensure Dunfermline avoid the drop and, following Saturday’s goalless draw with the Diamonds, cannot be dragged into a play-off.
They can approach Friday’s finale against Morton with certainty.
Before Friday’s games: Relegation – Hamilton Accies; Play-off – Airdrie; 8th – Queen’s Park; 7th – Dunfermline.
Accies are deducted 12 points
With everything open to the tribunal, they could reduce Hamilton’s sanction to 12 points.
That could be because the SFA licence penalty is removed or because the hearing decides the 12 points for the wages rule breach is too punitive.
In that eventuality, Dunfermline and Queen’s Park remain safe and Accies are relegated, with Airdrie still in the play-offs.
Before Friday’s games: Relegation – Hamilton; Play-off – Airdrie; 8th – Queen’s Park; 7th – Dunfermline.
The penalties are reduced to 9 points
Again, this could come about in different ways. But this is the first outcome that would change the final week of the Championship’s relegation battle.
Dunfermline and Queen’s Park would still be okay, but a nine-point deduction would bring Airdrie to within touching distance for Hamilton.
There would be just two points of a difference between the two teams and would mean a win for Accies away to Falkirk would take them into the play-off place if Airdrie lose at home to Ayr United.
Before Friday’s games: Relegation – Hamilton; Play-off – Airdrie; 8th – Queen’s Park; 7th – Dunfermline.
Hamilton are deducted six points
Again, Dunfermline and Queen’s Park will definitely be playing second-tier football next season in this scenario.
But it would take Accies above Airdrie and into second-bottom spot going into the last round of fixtures.
That would mean a win against Falkirk would be enough to save Hamilton from automatic relegation and plunge Airdrie into League One even if the Diamonds win.
Accies would then face a play-off.
Before Friday’s games: Relegation – Airdrie; Play-off – Hamilton; 8th – Queen’s Park; 7th – Dunfermline.
Accies suffer three-point penalty
This is the first outcome that would trouble Dunfermline.
Should the tribunal decide to, for instance, overturn the entirety of the wages rule breach, Hamilton would be left with a three-point deduction for the SFA licence transgression.
That would definitely save them from automatic relegation and send Airdrie down.
Accies would then be just two points behind Dunfermline and Queen’s Park, meaning the Pars, with a vastly superior goal difference, would still need a point to be safe.
Before Friday’s games: Relegation – Airdrie; Play-off – Hamilton; 8th – Queen’s Park; 7th – Dunfermline.
Tribunal overturns all sanctions
This would be the most worrying situation for Dunfermline.
Without the 15-point penalty, Hamilton would be a point ahead, in seventh, with the Pars dropping to eighth.
They could not be caught by Airdrie, who would suffer automatic relegation.
But it would leave a three-way fight between the Fifers, Queen’s Park and Accies to avoid the play-off place.
Dunfermline are two goals better off than Queen’s Park and would have to match the Spiders’ result.
However, if Hamilton were to lose to title-chasing Falkirk, a point for the Pars against Morton would definitely be enough for them to avoid the play-off because of goal difference.
Before Friday’s games: Relegation – Airdrie; Play-off – Queen’s Park; 8th – Dunfermline; 7th – Hamilton.
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