The return of Brad Spencer to the Raith Rovers midfield has brought with it a good run of form.
The 26-year-old made his comeback from a broken metatarsal in the win over Cove Rangers in the SPFL Trust Trophy in August.
He had previously been eased back in with substitute appearances versus Inverness and Ayr United in the Scottish Championship.
Another 34 minutes off the bench in the defeat to Queen’s Park readied him for his first start since his return – a 3-0 win over Cove.
Spencer has started every one of the six matches since then, as manager Ian Murray changed formation, with Rovers winning four, drawing one and losing one.
Looking at league matches in isolation, Rovers have lost five of the eight matches he didn’t start.
It is a small sample size but Rovers have won 66.67% (four of six) of their Scottish Championship matches with Spencer in the starting XI.
They have won 37.5% (three of eight) of the matches he hasn’t started.
Even more significant is their propensity to lose when Spencer is absent.
Of the games the midfielder has been named in the starting lineup they have lost one of those six (16.67%), when he hasn’t they’ve lost five from eight (62.5%).
Last season
Spencer missed large parts of last season due to injury as well but seems to have now fully recovered.
It is not just this season that he proved his worth to the side.
Before picking a long-term injury last December he was part of a Rovers team that was on form – that is until he dropped out the side.
Of the 14 league matches he started between August and December last year, Rovers won seven, drew six and lost just once.
That’s a win percentage of 50% with Spencer.
He didn’t make his return until April. By that point Raith’s chances of a play-off spot were in doubt after 11 matches without a win.
Of the 15 matches without him Rovers won twice (13.37%), drawing seven.
He made his return for the final seven league matches of the season but was clearly not 100% given his subsequent spell on the sidelines.
Overall, for this season and last in the Scottish Championship – discounting the last seven games from the 2021/22 campaign – Raith have won 43.83% of the matches Spencer has started.
They have won 30.77% of the matches he has not.
Amazingly, Raith have lost just twice in 20 matches in those two spells with Spencer starting, losing 11 of 23 without him.
Even if we include those seven from the run-in of 2021/22 – he started three, with two defeats and a draw – it means Raith have lost four matches from 23 (17.39%).
Without the midfielder they have lost 13 of 26 (61.54%).
Other factors
Of course, these things always need some context and for this season at least Spencer’s return was well-timed.
Murray was still building his squad when Spencer made himself available for selection and since then a number of players – old and new – have settled.
It could also be argued that manager Ian Murray’s methods have only recently started to take effect.
However, there is no denying the influence Spencer has on this Rovers team.
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