Kelty Hearts have won half of their 12 matches versus full-time opposition in League One this season.
Saturday’s 3-0 over Queen of the South meant that the part-time side has now played each of the four full-time teams on three occasions.
For the sake of argument, we are classing the hybrid model at Airdrieonians among the four.
In 12 matches versus Airdrie, Queens, Dunfermline and Falkirk, Kelty have won six times and drawn twice.
Those two draws include the 0-0 at home to the Pars early in the season – the first points dropped by James McPake in League One.
The defeats include conceding late goals to Dunfermline and to Falkirk – both at New Central Park and both after leading in the game.
John Potter’s men manage a fair amount of late goals too, scoring a third of their total in the final 15 minutes of matches.
This includes two of the three from last weekend, with Kallum Higginbotham’s opener coming 20 minutes from the end.
Home comforts
The defensive record is also impressive. Darren Jamieson has seven clean sheets, behind only Dunfermline’s Deniz Mehmet and Ross Sinclair who was on loan at Montrose earlier in the season.
As a club they have the same number of shutouts as Falkirk and Edinburgh – but six of those have come at home, with only Airdrie managing more having played one extra home game.
The win over Queen of the South last weekend put Kelty level on points with the Dumfries outfit in joint seventh.
As it stands the play-off spots are seven points out of reach as the middle of League One squeezes.
Kelty are on 32 points from 26 matches, that’s 1.28 points per game (PPG).
If we look at previous fourth-place finishes we can see that the average minimum points required are around 52 – or 1.44 PPG.
The 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons are removed from the analysis with fewer matches played in those campaigns due to the pandemic.
It leaves Kelty needing 20 points from 11 matches – if the previous five completed seasons in the third tier are any measure.
Though how the rest of the middle portion of League One pans out between now and the end of the season is anyone’s guess.
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