Arbroath stand on the brink of Championship survival after relegation rivals Hamilton’s home defeat to Inverness on Tuesday.
Victory at home to Cove Rangers on Saturday will secure 8th place and ensure they avoid both automatic relegation and the play-offs.
The Angus side are hoping for a big crowd at Gayfield to roar them over the line calling on fans to ‘make it maroon, all aroon’ their home ground.
But what if Arbroath don’t collect three points?
Where does it leave them in the race to avoid the drop in their three-way fight with Hamilton and Cove?
Courier Sport outlines below possible scenarios they could face at 4.45pm on Saturday:
Remaining fixtures
Arbroath (played 33):Â Cove Rangers (h), Partick Thistle (a), Hamilton (h)
Hamilton (played 34):Â Partick Thistle (h), Arbroath (a)
Cove Rangers (played 33):Â Arbroath (a), Dundee (a), Morton (h)
If Arbroath win v Cove:
This is by far the most simple equation.
Victory v Cove means Arbroath would be completely safe.
It would move Lichties nine points clear of Cove with two games to play.
Hamilton would be a minimum of four adrift – more if they fail to beat Partick – with the Lanarkshire side having just one game remaining.
Neither side could catch Arbroath and would instead be left scrapping it between themselves out to avoid automatic relegation.
If Arbroath draw v Cove:
Arbroath will still be in a very commanding position to avoid automatic relegation.
To finish bottom, Lichties would have to lose their remaining games with Partick and Hamilton.
Hamilton would need to beat Partick Thistle on Saturday and Arbroath on May 5th.
Cove would also have to win at Dundee and at home to Morton on the final day, overturning their 22-goal difference deficit on Arbroath in the process.
Should Arbroath draw and Hamilton draw or lose to Partick, then – at worst – Arbroath will finish ninth and go into the play-offs.
In this scenario, only Cove could catch Arbroath.
To do so, Cove would need to win convincingly in their final games, with Arbroath losing both theirs. There would also have to be a 22-goal swing in Cove’s favour.
If Arbroath lose v Cove:
This is where it becomes far more complicated for Lichties.
Their survival fate would still be in their own hands as they would remain in eighth place on Saturday night.
They would be a minimum of one point ahead of Hamilton and three clear of Cove.
They would still, in all likelihood, command a healthy goal difference over both – barring a freak 10-0 win for Cove.
But it would mean they could still be in danger of automatic relegation.
Cove could overtake Arbroath by winning their final two games, one of which is away title-chasing Dundee next Friday.
This would also only happen if the Angus side failed to get a win in both of their remaining fixtures with Partick and Hamilton.
In that scenario, Arbroath would only be assured of automatic relegation if Hamilton were to beat both Partick on Saturday and win at Gayfield on May 5th.
A draw for Hamilton at Partick would mean they’d travel to Arbroath requiring an 8-0 win, or less depending on Lichties’ margin of defeat to Cove at the weekend.
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