Dunfermline Athletic boss James McPake bemoaned a lack of quality in attack following Saturday’s Fife derby defeat to Raith Rovers – but what do the statistics tell us?
It was a hard-fought contest between two rivals, separated by a wonderful free-kick from Dylan Easton and a predatory finish from Cody David.
McPake appears be coming under increasing pressure from some supporters angered by seeing their team languishing in second bottom spot in the Championship.
But is the East End Park manager right to highlight his team’s underperformance in the final third – and how has that problem affected the campaign as a whole?
Courier Sport digs into the statistics to find out.
Fife derby defeat
In the Fife derby at the weekend, the figures indicate an even contest.
According to the website, footystats.org, Dunfermline enjoyed 47 per cent possession compared to their hosts’ 53 per cent.
When it came to shots, Rovers were on top with 14 to the Pars’ ten.
But, in terms of shots on target, Dunfermline were better, with five compared to Rovers’ four.
All that distilled down to Expected Goals (xG) of 1.22 for Raith and 1.11 for the Pars.
Ultimately, Rovers did more with the opportunities they did create, converting half of their shots on target for the two goals that mattered.
Pars’ campaign as a whole
The interesting thing comes when comparing those statistics across the whole season.
Expected goals is a metric that has become more commonplace in football and measures the likelihood of a shot being scored.
It is dependent on various factors, including the distance to goal, the angle, the quality of the shot and other characteristics.
The difference between a team’s xG and their actual goals scored shows whether they have over-performed or underperformed in any given match.
Dunfermline’s xG of 1.49 is the fourth best in the league, behind Falkirk, Ayr United and Livingston.
But comparing their xG with the reality (14 goals in 17 games) shows they have massively underperformed in front of the target.
Calculating the difference between the two (-0.67), shows they are the second worst in the division at turning chances into goals, with only bottom side Airdrie poorer.
Head-to-head
The bitter truth is that Dunfermline sit ninth in the table and currently occupy the relegation play-off spot.
But where would they be if they were to live up to their xG figures?
The organisation footystats.org crunches the numbers for individual matches to see what the outcome would be if the results played out according to xG.
Their Expected Points (xP) table has Dunfermline sitting fourth on 26 points – a massive 11 more than they currently have.
Going by these figures, they should have six wins, eight draws and just three defeats, rather than the four victories, three draws and ten losses they do have.
The -11 difference between their xP and their actual points is the worst in the Championship.
It all adds up to show Dunfermline desperately need to find a way – or the right personnel – to turn expectation into reality when it comes to goal opportunities.
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