Michael Tidser admits Dunfermline are heading for relegation to League One unless they up their game in the final ten games of the campaign.
And his stark warning has been backed by a look at the statistics for Championship teams going back over the last couple of decades.
Courier Sport has drilled down into the figures for the teams who have faced the automatic drop and the nerves of a play-off spot since the format was introduced in 2005/06.
And the numbers do not make pretty reading for the Pars on current form.
Every season is different, with less of a gap between top and bottom in some years than others, and the second-tier sometimes boasting traditionally bigger clubs such as Dundee United, Hearts, Hibs and Rangers.
But the team that has dropped into League One has done so with an average of 27 points.
That stretches from Brechin City’s dismal four in 2018, to Clyde’s high of 39 in 2009.
Dunfermline currently sit on 24 points, with a seven-point lead on bottom side Airdrie.
There will be concern over the Diamonds’ current sparkling form, with the Lanarkshire men having picked up three wins and two draws from their last five outings.
Relegation play-off
But the hope will be the Fifers can hold off Rhys McCabe’s team to avoid straight relegation.
The focus will then turn to trying to avoid the worries of a relegation play-off spot and having to come through two tense ties to save their second-tier status.
It was something the Pars failed to do just three years ago, following a semi-final loss to Queen’s Park, and also in 2013 when they were defeated by Alloa Athletic in the final.
Teams finishing ninth over the years have accumulated an average of 35 points before having their fate decided by the play-offs.
The Pars themselves racked up 34 in 2012/13 and 35 in 2021/22.
And the side that has won the relegation battle and finished eighth since 2005/06 has done so with an average of 39 points.
So, where does that leave Dunfermline following their recent run of one league win from their last six outings?
The East End Park men have 24 points from 26 matches, meaning an average of slightly under a point per game at 0.923.
If they keep up that ratio, they will end the campaign on 33 points – which, on average, has not been enough to avoid finishing in ninth and enduring a play-off.
Tidser will be optimistic, however, that his frank assessment of his players in the wake of Tuesday’s 1-0 defeat to Hamilton Accies will bring the right response, starting with Saturday’s home clash with Morton.
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