Dundee United and Dundee face off this weekend at Tannadice with more on the line than just derby bragging rights.
The visiting Dark Blues are in grave relegation trouble while the high-flying Tangerines fancy some European football next season.
Three points would be a massive boost for either side – United want to secure top six and to consolidate fourth while the Dee are in desperate need for points to have any chance of staying up.
The two derbies already this season haven’t brought much goalmouth action, though United have had the better of things with four points from six.
A 1-0 win at Tannadice in September was followed by a 0-0 at Dens – so should we expect an attacking extravaganza on Saturday?
Goals?
The stats say no.
The atmosphere will be buzzing, with both sets of fans in full voice and, no doubt, real intensity on the pitch with so much at stake.
But this will be a battle between two of the lowest scorers in the division – only St Johnstone have scored fewer than these two.
United have the third lowest home goal tally in the Premiership while the Perth Saints are the only side to score less than Dundee away from home.
The top league scorer between the two sides is Dee’s Danny Mullen on six with United’s Nicky Clark next on five.
Defence
That’s the bad bit out of the way – for United, at least.
Tam Courts has built his side’s season on defensive solidity, with the likes of Charlie Mulgrew and Ryan Edwards shining throughout the campaign.
That shows in their position in the league table.
The only side outside the top three in the table to concede fewer than United is Hibs. Along the way the Tangerines have racked up 10 clean sheets.
Dundee, meanwhile, have the worst defence in the division – conceding 20 goals more than their city rivals.
Since Mark McGhee’s arrival, they have let in 13 goals in seven matches, keeping just one clean sheet.
How do United win this game?
The Tangerines are built for 1-0 wins – 18 of their 40 points this season have come from single-goal victories.
But theirs isn’t a smash-and-grab style, defend for most of the game and steal a goal.
They are one of the least direct sides in the division, much preferring to build up attacks, than get the ball forward quickly.
Controlling possession will be key for the hosts – Hibs dominated the ball in their last outing (63-37%) and created many more shooting chances than United. The Tangerines held out well for an important point, however.
Their best showing in recent weeks saw Dundee United keep 55% possession on the road at St Mirren as they deservedly won in Paisley.
United were top in expected goals, shots, shots on target, possession, total passes, passing accuracy, tackles and tackles won among others.
But possession isn’t everything. United have been good at making the most of their chances – in their last three games, their goal tally has topped their expected goals (metric of quality of chances created).
Against this Dundee defence, they will get chances.
How do Dundee win this game?
Set-pieces have been key for the Dee under McGhee.
Four of their six goals since he took over have come from corners or free-kicks, with Charlie Adam’s delivery proving deadly against Aberdeen last time out.
Across the season, they’ve scored nine times from set-plays and have had 112 shots coming directly from a free-kick, corner or throw in. United, meanwhile, have had only 86, the lowest in the division.
Dundee’s open play success is far poorer. Only St Johnstone have registered fewer shots.
The problem for the Dark Blues is United’s defensive strength, which has helped them only concede five times from set-pieces. By comparison, Celtic have conceded 10 and Rangers nine.
Manager McGhee says he has seen encouraging signs from his side in recent matches.
Last time out, they created chances against Aberdeen – topping the Dons in the expected goals tally by 1.26 to 1.13 – and grabbed a goal against Rangers with their only shot on target.
However, against this miserly United rear guard, opportunities will be tough to come by so making the most of their set-piece strength will be important if they are to have any hope.
