Dundee’s start to the 2024/25 season hasn’t quite gone to plan.
Too many goals conceded and too many games lost with a couple of false starts failing to kick Tony Docherty’s side into gear.
Dundee lie seventh in the Premiership after 12 matches.
How, though, does this campaign compare to previous ones?
As bad as it might seem to fans right now, this start to the season is pretty much bang on the average for the Dark Blues in the top flight in the 21st century.
Courier Sport will now explain why that is not such a bad thing.
Best start
This season Dundee have 12 points from their 12 matches and sit seventh in the Premiership table.
There have been seven seasons since 2000 where the Dee started better than that, including last term.
Docherty’s first season saw his side on 17 points from their first 12 matches with the 12th game that excellent 4-0 win over St Mirren.
Three times they’ve been on 17 at this stage, only once have they bettered it – Dundee’s return to the top flight in 2014 saw 19 points plundered from the first 12.
Paul Hartley’s team led by the brilliance of Greg Stewart scored 18 times in those games – the same amount as the team this time around – but conceded 14 – nine fewer.
They would go on to finish sixth that season.
The lowest Dundee have finished after gaining at least 16 points from the opening 12 games is seventh in 2015/16.
Worst start
There are some contenders for this disputable honour.
The ‘Club 12’ season comes to mind when Barry Smith’s unprepared side were parachuted into the top flight after the demise of Rangers.
Seven points at this stage isn’t the worst, though.
The 2018/19 season started – and finished – atrociously.
Only three points were on the board by this stage – one win over Hamilton Accies overwhelmed by 11 defeats with only five goals scored and a massive 29 conceded.
That season ended in relegation after Neil McCann was replaced by Jim McIntyre.
What’s the average?
This season Dundee have won three, drawn three and lost six. They’ve scored 18 and let in 23. Seventh place with 12 points.
Courier Sport crunched the numbers across the 13 seasons going back to 2000/01 when the Bonettis ruled the roost.
And the average campaign is really not far away from where Docherty’s side are now.
The average is three wins, three draws and six defeats (as this season) with 12 goals scored and 19 conceded (this side are ahead on both fronts) and 12.6 points (not far off this term).
The average position is eighth at this stage.
Though Dundee want to move higher in the table, the good news is positions at this point in the campaign tend to show where they will finish up.
Last season they were sixth at this stage, they finished sixth. Four seasons of the last 13 top-flight campaigns follow suit.
In the four relegation seasons, Dundee were already deep in trouble by this point – 10th or below after 12 matches.
Only twice have they changed positions by as much as three places between game 12 and 38, both seasons finishing ninth.
The average finish for the Dark Blues in the top-flight since 2000 is between eighth and ninth.
Goals
The major concern right now is goals conceded.
Last season Dundee conceded 68 in 38 matches, this term it is 23 in 12. They are on course to concede 72 goals this time around.
In the four relegation seasons they’d conceded 22, 22, 29 and 23 after 12 games.
They’d also conceded 23 in 2017/18, finishing ninth, and 21 in 2015/16 before finishing eighth.
What marks a distinct shift from those relegation nightmares is the number of goals going in at the right end.
Three times Dundee were still in single figures for goals at this stage, twice only on five.
Only twice have Dundee scored as many goals at this stage of a season – they got 18 in back-to-back seasons under Hartley, finishing sixth and eighth.
Analysis
Dundee fans are right to be concerned by the nature of goals being conceded this season combined with injuries to key players.
However, the history books show that we already know if they are in serious trouble by this point.
This side are not, though they obviously have issues to sort out.
Over-achieving last season also plays a part in the perception this time around with Docherty’s side gaining just a second top-six finish in over 20 years.
This campaign has been far from perfect but there have been much, much worse starts and not so long ago either.
Clearly they have firepower – this century they’ve never scored more goals than 18 at this stage.
The history books tell us this kind of points tally after 12 games generally means a steady finish clear of any real trouble – the type of season that is normally more than acceptable.
However, the potential at Dens Park is greater than has been shown in recent weeks and they’ll want more than just a mid-table finish.
This is an average start for Dundee, not a terrible one, and it is just a start.
All is far from lost with 26 matches still to be played.
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