That would mean winning their last four matches – including Monday night’s Dundee derby – and hoping Kilmarnock don’t win any of theirs.
It is not thought Paatelainen will be dismissed before the Dens Park clash but his departure from Tannadice in the close season, or possibly even before the campaign is formally over, now appears all but certain.
The last two home matches have been disastrous for United, with Inverness Caledonian Thistle and Hamilton Accies enjoying comfortable wins against the Tangerines.
Paatelainen still hopes to be given the chance to bring United back up from the Championship but knows his position will be under review.
He admitted: “I don’t count myself out of this. I have been here for a few months and I have made mistakes, so I am in the same boat as the players.”