Dundee United, Ross County and Motherwell are separated by just one point. A fraught fight for European qualification promises to go down to the wire.
With Europa Conference League football awaiting the sides that finish fourth and fifth in the Premiership, a mouth-watering three-way shoot-out will play out in the top six over the next four weeks.
In the words of United boss Tam Courts, you can barely slip a cigarette paper between the sides, such has been the level of parity this season.
But how do the continental contenders compare? Courier Sport has crunched the numbers to find out.
Record against the top six
United fans should be heartened by their excellent record against the Premiership’s big guns.
🤩 What a finish. What a performance by Our Academy’s very own Jamie Robson!#UnitedTogether #OurAcademypic.twitter.com/XTwe9oZ9Gh
— Our Academy (@DUFCAcademy) August 7, 2021
While Courts’ charges narrowly lead County and Motherwell in the overall standings, they are streets ahead when it comes to matches against top six outfits.
In a mini-league table of the three clubs — solely factoring in their fixtures against the other five sides in the top half — United have 19 points.
That includes a laudable four points against Rangers, seven points against Ross County and six points against Motherwell.
Indeed, in a combined six games against County and the Steelmen, they have only lost once.
Motherwell have collected 11 points, scoring just 11 goals in the process and conceding 29.
County bring up the rear with 10 points. The only team from the top six they have beaten this season is Motherwell — twice — and they have conceded 32 goals; more than two per match.
On the attack
The stick often used to beat this United side is a lack of potency in the final third; a scarcity of stardust.
The numbers bear that out.
With 31 goals from 33 Premiership fixtures, the Tannadice men are the only club in the top half of the table which averages less than a goal a game.
They also have the lowest xG (expected goals) — a measurement of the likelihood of a chance being converted — albeit they trail Motherwell on that count by a minimal margin.
Allied with their modest shot conversion rate, United’s numbers tell the story of a side desperately in need of a ruthless, clinical streak.
Perhaps most surprising, is United’s failure to capitalise on set-piece opportunities. They have scored just six times (excluding penalties) from those scenarios this term, notably lower than Motherwell (10) and County (11).
One might expect a side which boasts the deadly deliveries of Charlie Mulgrew and the aerial prowess of stars like Ross Graham, Ryan Edwards and Calum Butcher to rank higher.
By every measure, County are the most dangerous prospect going forward.
A rearguard effort
A solid season has been built on stoic foundations for United.
They have registered 10 clean sheets in the Premiership — a shut-out in 33.3% of their league outings — and their average number of goals conceded per match (1.12) is far superior to County (1.58) and Motherwell (1.52).
Interestingly, that huge disparity is not reflected in the xGA (expected goals against), where United and County are locked together on a 1.63 average per game.
That implies that United’s defensive record is at least partly down to the wastefulness of the opposition.
And while the Terrors’ efficacy in the opposition box from set-pieces leaves something to be desired, their ability to repel them is laudable — conceding just six times from non-penalty dead balls.
