With their 1-0 defeat to Livingston on Saturday, St Johnstone completed their first set of fixtures in the Premiership.
They now find themselves on exactly the same total of points (10) as after the opening 11 games of the previous two campaigns under Callum Davidson.
With a major milestone in the league campaign having been reached, Courier Sport assesses the shape the Perth side are in as they seek to make sure their season takes off in part two as opposed to the implosion that followed a year ago.
The Opta outlook
Looking at the statistical comparison between last season and this at the equivalent stage, there is a drop-off in a few attacking categories.
Expected goals, shots and shots in the box have all decreased.
The main figure that matters is, of course, goals scored, however.
And Opta number-crunching isn’t required to tell you that has gone up from seven to 11.
In terms of midfield control, the passing accuracy percentage is close.
It has dropped from 65.7% to 64.1% (the 2020/21 figure was 66.6%).
Saints are a team averaging two per cent less in possession.
The facet of their game that has improved is in duels won – both on the ground and in the air.
Points that got away
In 2021/22, Saints could put up a reasonable argument that they were three points short of a total that reflected the way in which games had played out.
They should have beaten Ross County on day one when Ali McCann sent a penalty high into the Highland sky and were robbed of a point at Easter Road as a result of John Beaton’s spot-kick award against Jamie McCart that would surely be overturned by VAR if something similar happens on Friday night.
This season, Saints were probably again worthy of a point against Hibs, shot themselves in the foot at Tynecastle when that match was heading towards a draw as well and the 2-1 defeat to Celtic was another point that got away.
A common denominator of both campaigns is that there has yet to be a match when you would say Saints were lucky to get a win or a draw.
Reasons to be fearful
Four of Saints’ six matches after the transfer window shut have been largely encouraging.
The wins against St Mirren and Dundee United were both thoroughly merited, they were the likelier of the two sides to break the deadlock when Ross County were the visitors to McDiarmid Park and the second half performance against champions Celtic was as impressive as the conclusion was painful.
The away defeats to Kilmarnock and Livingston undermine that post-window positivity, though.
Maybe the artificial surfaces provide a bit of mitigation but that would be clutching at straws.
The chief concern at the moment isn’t losing to two teams they realistically hope to beat, it’s the fact that falling behind hasn’t sparked the sort of reaction supporters expect to see.
The other worry is there isn’t a side in the league likely to fill the ‘well, they’ll save us’ role.
Being better than last season might not be enough to stay in the Premiership.
Reasons to be cheerful
Saturday showed what we probably knew already – for as long as Chris Kane remains sidelined, Nicky Clark needs to be in this team if Saints are to be an effective attacking unit.
They also need to see Jamie Murphy, Melker Hallberg – or whoever else is supposed to provide creativity from the middle of the pitch – to find a run of form.
David Wotherspoon returning to share the load can’t fail to increase final third productivity.
And hopefully the same will soon be said of Graham Carey.
If you were going to prioritise one position that is more important than any other for teams whose priority is staying up, it would be centre-back.
From St Mirren down, Davidson’s quartet for that area is one I wouldn’t swap with any other club.
There might not be a Dundee-type safety net but the first set of fixtures has shown there is no gulf in quality between Saints and several other sides in the division.
That wasn’t the case last season.
The goal has to be to make the United and St Mirren performances the rule in the next batch of fixtures and the Killie and Livingston ones the exception.
Achieve that in the main and the comfort of mid-table will be theirs.
If it’s the other way around, a second successive relegation battle is coming down the track.
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